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Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy

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Author Info
Titus O. Awokuse (University of Delaware)
David A. Bessler (Texas A&M University)

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Abstract

The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims’ 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed graph results show Sims’ six-variable VAR is not rich enough to provide an unambiguous ordering at usual levels of statistical significance. A significance level in the neighborhood of 30 % is required to find a clear structural ordering. Although the DAG results are in agreement with Sims’ theory-based model for unemployment, differences are noted for the other five variables: income, money supply, price level, interest rates, and investment. Overall the DAG results are broadly consistent with a monetarist view with adaptive expectations and no hyperinflation.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): VI (2003)
Issue (Month): (May)
Pages: 1-24
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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:6:y:2003:n:1:p:1-24

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Related research
Keywords: vector autoregression; directed graphs; policy analysis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  6. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Hess, Patrick J & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1999. "Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Disturbances," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1203-18.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "How important are financing constraints ? The role of finance in the business environment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3820, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bessler, David & Leatham, David J. & Yang, Juan, 2005. "In Search of the "Bank Lending Channel": Causality Analysis for the Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19558, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  3. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Market Reforms, Spatial Price Dynamics, and China's Rice Market Integration: A Causal Analysis with Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April. [Downloadable!]
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