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Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy

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Abstract

The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims’ 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed graph results show Sims’ six-variable VAR is not rich enough to provide an unambiguous ordering at usual levels of statistical significance. A significance level in the neighborhood of 30 % is required to find a clear structural ordering. Although the DAG results are in agreement with Sims’ theory-based model for unemployment, differences are noted for the other five variables: income, money supply, price level, interest rates, and investment. Overall the DAG results are broadly consistent with a monetarist view with adaptive expectations and no hyperinflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): VI (2003)
Issue (Month): (May)
Pages: 1-24

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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:6:y:2003:n:1:p:1-24

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Keywords: vector autoregression; directed graphs; policy analysis;

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  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
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Cited by:
  1. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2012. "Price and Volatility Spillover between Livestock and Related Commodity Markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Yang, Zihui & Zhao, Yongliang, 2014. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in India: Evidence from directed acyclic graphs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 533-540.
  3. Ligia Alba Melo B. & Jorge Ramos F. & Hector Zarate S., 2013. "Mercado de bonos soberanos y estabilidad financiera: Una aplicación de Gráficos Acíclicos Direccionados (GAD) y modelos SVAR," Borradores de Economia 795, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Lady, George M. & Buck, Andrew J., 2011. "Structural models, information and inherited restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2820-2831.
  5. Alessio Moneta, 2005. "Causality in macroeconometrics: some considerations about reductionism and realism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 433-453.
  6. Brisne J. V. Céspedes & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Alexis Maka, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brasil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts From SVAR Models," Discussion Papers 1101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  7. Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2008. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), October.
  8. Andrew J. Buck & George M. Lady, 2011. "Structural Sign Patterns and Reduced Form Restrictions," DETU Working Papers 1102, Department of Economics, Temple University.
  9. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  10. Bessler, David A. & Leatham, David J. & Yang, Juan, 2005. "In Search of the "Bank Lending Channel": Causality Analysis for the Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19558, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "How important are financing constraints ? The role of finance in the business environment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3820, The World Bank.

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