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A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling

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Abstract

In this paper we discuss the 'structural cointegrating VAR' approach to macroeconometric modelling and compare it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The structural cointegrating VAR approach has the attractive features that the estimated long-run relationships embedded in the model are theory consistent, and have a clear economic interpretation, and yet the short-run dynamics are flexibly estimated within a VAR framework. The approach is illustrated using a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK. The uses of the model in impulse response analysis and probability forecasting is also discussed.

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  • Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1998. "A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 8, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:8
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    6. H. Levent Korap, 2007. "Multirank Cointegration Analysis Of Turkish M1 Money Demand (1987q1-2006q3)," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, May.
    7. Derek W. Bunn & Carlo Fezzi, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Working Papers 2007.63, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. MAURIN Alain & SOOKRAM Sandra & WATSON Patrick Kent, 2010. "Measuring the Size of the Hidden Economy in Trinidad & Tobago," EcoMod2003 330700098, EcoMod.
    9. Garratt A. & Lee K. & Pesaran M.H. & Shin Y., 2003. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 829-838, January.
    10. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Jha, Jaya & Roe, Terry L., 2016. "U.S. Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236250, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    13. WATSON Patrick, 2010. "Macroeonomic Dynamics in Trinidad & Tobago: Implications for Monetary Policy in a Very Small Oil-Based Economy," EcoMod2003 330700151, EcoMod.
    14. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
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    16. Aloui, Riadh & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2016. "Uncertainty and crude oil returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-100.
    17. Bunn, Derek W. & Fezzi, Carlo, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 9092, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    18. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Chen, Pu & Schneider, Elena & Frohn, Joachim, 2008. "A Long-Run Structural Macroeconometric Model for Germany: An Empirical Note," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-12.
    20. Mr Insukindro & Arti Adji & Aryo Aliyudanto, 2014. "Analysis of the Unanticipated Factors in Portfolio Inflows to Indonesia: A SCVAR Approach, 2000: Q1 - 2012: Q4," EcoMod2014 7019, EcoMod.
    21. Ann Cavlovic & Kathleen Day, "undated". "Equalization and the Incentives for Growth: An Empirical Investigation of the "Tax-Back" Effect," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-23, Department of Finance Canada.
    22. Alain Maurin & Sandra Sookram & Patrick Kent Watson, 2006. "Measuring the size of the hidden economy in Trinidad & Tobago, 1973-1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 321-341.

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    Keywords

    structural cointegrating VAR; macroeconomic modelling; generalised impulse responses; persistence profiles; probability forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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