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A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling

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Author Info
A Garratt
K Lee
M H Pesaran
Yongcheol Shin ()

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Abstract

In this paper we discuss the 'structural cointegrating VAR' approach to macroeconometric modelling and compare it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The structural cointegrating VAR approach has the attractive features that the estimated long-run relationships embedded in the model are theory consistent, and have a clear economic interpretation, and yet the short-run dynamics are flexibly estimated within a VAR framework. The approach is illustrated using a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK. The uses of the model in impulse response analysis and probability forecasting is also discussed.

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Paper provided by Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh in its series ESE Discussion Papers with number 8.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:8

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Related research
Keywords: Structural Cointegrating VAR; Macroeconomic Modelling; Generalised Impulse Responses; Persistence Profiles; Probability Forecasts.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Juan de Dios Tena & Jorge Dresdner & Ivan Araya, 2007. "A multimarket approach to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws076917, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Paul Gaggl & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Prettner & Thomas Url, 2009. "The short and long-run interdependencies between the Eurozone and the USA," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 209-227, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. H. Levent Korap, 2007. "Multirank Cointegration Analysis Of Turkish M1 Money Demand (1987q1-2006q3)," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, May. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alessandro Galesi & Marco J. Lombardi, 2009. "External shocks and international inflation linkages - a Global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1062, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alain Maurin & Sandra Sookram & Patrick Kent Watson, 2006. "Measuring the size of the hidden economy in Trinidad & Tobago, 1973--1999," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 321-341, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alaa M. Soliman, 2005. "The Asymmetric Effects Of A Common Monetary Policy In Europe," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-20, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jan Gottschalk, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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