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A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling

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Author Info
A Garratt
K Lee
M H Pesaran
Yongcheol Shin ()

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Abstract

In this paper we discuss the 'structural cointegrating VAR' approach to macroeconometric modelling and compare it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The structural cointegrating VAR approach has the attractive features that the estimated long-run relationships embedded in the model are theory consistent, and have a clear economic interpretation, and yet the short-run dynamics are flexibly estimated within a VAR framework. The approach is illustrated using a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK. The uses of the model in impulse response analysis and probability forecasting is also discussed.

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Paper provided by Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh in its series ESE Discussion Papers with number 8.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:8

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Related research
Keywords: Structural Cointegrating VAR Macroeconomic Modelling Generalised Impulse Responses Persistence Profiles Probability Forecasts.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alaa M. Soliman, 2005. "The Asymmetric Effects Of A Common Monetary Policy In Europe," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-20, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jan Gottschalk, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alain Maurin & Sandra Sookram & Patrick Kent Watson, 2006. "Measuring the size of the hidden economy in Trinidad & Tobago, 1973--1999," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 321-341, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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