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Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules

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Author Info
JUAN MANUEL JULIO ()
JAVIER GÓMEZ

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Abstract

The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is model as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation uncertainty. The performance of monetary rules is studied both with certainty on the output gap values as well as with estimation uncertainty.

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:005410

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  3. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Manuel Julio, . "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Martha Misas & Enrique López Enciso, . "Desequilibrios Reales en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 181, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, . "¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 191, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Juan Manuel Julio Román, . "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition To A Stable Level Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 404, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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