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Un Examen Empirico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia

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  • Enrique López E.

    ()

  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

Abstract

La correcta comprensión de la relación entre la inflación y el desempleo es central para la conducción de la política monetaria. Ahora bien, en las discusiones sobre esa relación la curva de Phillips y la NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) continúan ocupando un lugar central. Al parecer sigue siendo cierto, como afirma Solow (1976), que todo tiempo es bueno para reflexionar sobre la curva de Phillips1, entendida esta como una ecuación simple que representa la relación entre la inflación y el producto. En ese sentido estamos convencidos de la utilidad analítica del concepto2. En nuestro caso la reflexión que se propone es esencialmente empírica: examinar los resultados de la estimación y la capacidad de previsión de diferentes versiones de una curva de Phillips lineal para Colombia. En último término, este tipo de ejercicio debe contribuir a dar respuesta a los interrogantes acerca de la magnitud de la pérdida de producto que se presenta durante la desinflación de la economía. Antes de entrar en materia, es prudente recordar que somos conscientes de los inconvenientes que genera la utilización de una sola ecuación para explicar la inflación. El principal inconveniente se encuentra en que las expectativas de inflación se consideran exógenas en este tipo de ejercicios, cosa que no sucede en un modelo macroeconómico completo. Consideramos, sin embargo, que este tipo de instrumento es complementario a los modelos completos, en particular, por las dificultades inherentes a la construcción de estos últimos. Con el fin de abordar la problemática, el documento se organiza en seis secciones incluida esta introducción. La segunda sección enmarca brevemente las discusiones teóricas y empíricas más importantes que hoy se presentan sobre el tema de la curva de Phillips. En la sección siguiente se estima una versión sencilla de la curva de Phillips con diferentes medidas de la brecha de producto. Ante la persistencia de las dificultades en la estimación, aún a pesar de las diferentes brechas de producto utilizadas, se proponen varias alternativas que se exploran en la sección cuarta. La sección quinta sugiere una metodología de elección para escoger los mejores modelos. La última sección concluye.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003676.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 30 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003676

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  1. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 378, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Jean-François Fillion & André Léonard, 1997. "La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 97-3, Bank of Canada.
  3. Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989. "The Wage Curve," Papers, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics 340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  4. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso, 1998. "El Producto Potencial En Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo Var Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002538, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  6. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
  9. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, 1998. "Análisis del comportamiento de la inflación trimestral en Colombia bajo cambios de régimen: Una evidencia a través del modelo "Switching" de Hamilton," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  10. Luis Fernando Melo V. & AlvaroRiascos, 1997. "El Producto Potencial Utilizando El Filtro De Hodrick-Prescott Con Parametro De Suavización Variable Y Ajustado Por Inflacion: Una Aplicación Para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002539, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  12. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  13. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
  14. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1996. "The Econometric Analysis of Economic Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 573-600, November.
  15. Karl Whelan, 1997. "Wage curve vs. Phillips curve: are there macroeconomic implications?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1997-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports, Bank of Canada 79, Bank of Canada.
  17. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-78, May.
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