IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000151/003418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • IREGUI, Ana María
  • MELO, Luis F.

Abstract

Al finalizar la década anterior la actividad real en Colombia experimentó la más aguda recesión de los últimos 50 años. Para explicar este fenómeno, postulamos un modelo VAR estructural no-triangular que describe la dinámica de la producción, los precios, el desempleo y los salarios durante las últimas dos décadas. La evidencia sugiere que, en el largo plazo, la política monetaria ha sido neutral con respecto al producto y la desempleo, mientras que la principal razón para el incremento de éste último se explica por la forma en que se han determinado los salarios (formación de expectativas hacia atrás) y el incremento de los costos no salariales.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/1102/996
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
    3. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45, December.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," Borradores de Economia 3549, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
    6. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    7. Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Gian Paolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2001. "The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 259-289, May.
    8. Ana Maria Iregui & Jesus Otero, 2003. "On the dynamics of unemployment in a developing economy: Colombia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 895-898.
    9. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa de Desempleo de Largo Plazo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 388, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2020. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2431-2464, May.
    5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Case Colombian," Borradores de Economia 3629, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo, 2003. "Recent Behavior of Output, Unemployment, Wages and Prices in Colombia:What went Wrong?," Borradores de Economia 249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Holmlund, Bertil & Alexius, Annika, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-25.
    3. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    4. Elías Albagli & Pablo García & Jorge Restrepo, 2004. "Labor Market Rigidity and Structural Shocks: An Open-Economy Approach for International Comparisons," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 263, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Maciej Bukowski & Grzegorz Koloch & Piotr Lewandowski, 2013. "Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labour markets’ performance," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 553-581, July.
    6. Fabiani, S. & Palenzuela-Rodriguez, D., 2001. "Model-Based Indicators of Labour Market Rigidity," Papers 57, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    7. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    8. Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad & Pål Ulvedal & Antoine Lepetit, 2020. "Estimating hysteresis effects," Working Paper 2020/13, Norges Bank.
    9. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:256-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay, 2002. "Structural Unemployment and the Output Gap in Germany: Evidence from an SVAR Analysis within a Hysteresis Framework," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 312, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2000. "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el siglo XX: El Aporte de un VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 2229, Banco de la Republica.
    12. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2000. "Crecimiento y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia en el Siglo XX: El aporte de un VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia 155, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Gianni Amisano & Massimiliano Serati, 2003. "What goes up sometimes stays up: shocks and institutions as determinants of unemployment persistence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 440-470, September.
    14. Antonio Rodriguez-Gil, 2018. "Hysteresis and labour market institutions. Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1985-2025, December.
    15. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
    16. Elías Albagli I. & Pablo García S. & Jorge Restrepo L., 2004. "Evaluating Labor Market Flexibility in Chile from an International Perspective," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(2), pages 27-46, August.
    17. Antoine Kamiantako Miyamueni & Henry Ngongo Muganza, 2018. "Chocs technologiques, chocs des prix et fluctuations du ch\^omage en R\'epublique D\'emocratique du Congo," Papers 1804.09532, arXiv.org.
    18. Elías Albagli & Pablo García & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2005. "Assessing the Flexibility of the Labor Market in Chile: An International Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Jorge Restrepo & Andrea Tokman R. & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edi (ed.),Labor Markets and Institutions, edition 1, volume 8, chapter 9, pages 301-328, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Alessandro Bellocchi & Giuseppe Travaglini & Beatrice Vitali, 2023. "How capital intensity affects technical progress: An empirical analysis for 17 advanced economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 606-631, July.
    20. Henry Muganza Ngongo & Antoine Kamiantako Miyamueni, 2018. "Chocs technologiques, chocs des prix et fluctuations du chômage en République Démocratique du Congo," Post-Print hal-01773922, HAL.
    21. Fabiani, S. & Palenzuela-Rodriguez, D., 2001. "Model-Based Indicators of Labour Market Rigidity," Papers 57, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural VAR; unemployment; monetary policy; wages; nonwage labour costs; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000151:003418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Economía (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferosco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.