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Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?


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  • Luis Eduardo Arango


  • IREGUI, Ana María
  • MELO, Luis F.


Al finalizar la d�cada anterior la actividad real en Colombia experiment� la m�s aguda recesi�n de los �ltimos 50 a�os. Para explicar este fen�meno, postulamos un modelo VAR estructural no-triangular que describe la din�mica de la producci�n, los precios, el desempleo y los salarios durante las �ltimas dos d�cadas. La evidencia sugiere que, en el largo plazo, la pol�tica monetaria ha sido neutral con respecto al producto y la desempleo, mientras que la principal raz�n para el incremento de �ste �ltimo se explica por la forma en que se han determinado los salarios (formaci�n de expectativas hacia atr�s) y el incremento de los costos no salariales.

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Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()

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Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003418

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Keywords: structural VAR; unemployment; monetary policy; wages; nonwage labour costs; expectations;

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  1. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
  2. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso, 0000. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 002291, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Gian Paolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2001. "The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 259-289, May.
  4. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
  5. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "El Producto Potencial en Colombia: Una Estimación Bajo VAR Estructural," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, . "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR apporach," Working Papers, FEDEA 96-19, FEDEA.
  8. Ana María Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2002. "On The Dynamics Of Unemployment In A Developing Economy: Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 003298, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "La Tasa de Desempleo de Largo Plazo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 388, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 009154, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Case Colombian," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 003629, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.


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