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Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations

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  • Annika Alexius
  • Bertil Holmlund

Abstract

A widely spread belief among economists is that monetary policy has relatively short-lived effects on real variables such as unemployment. Previous studies indicate that monetary policy affects the output gap only at business cycle frequencies, but the effects on unemployment may well be more persistent in countries with highly regulated labor markets. We study the Swedish experience of unemployment and monetary policy. Using a structural VAR we find that around 30 percent of the fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to monetary policy. The effects are also quite persistent. In the preferred model, almost 30 percent of the maximum effect of a shock still remains after ten years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2044.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2044

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Keywords: unemployment; monetary policy; structural VARs;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
  2. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Conditional Patterns of Unemployment Dynamics in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79958, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Hakan Berument & Nukhet Dogan & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," ERC Working Papers 0803, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2008.
  4. Maria Bas & Ivan Ledezma, 2007. "Market Access and the Evolution of within Plant Productivity in Chile," CESifo Working Paper Series 2077, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Monetary policy and European unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 94-108, Spring.
  6. Ohlsson, Henry, 2009. "The legacy of the Swedish gift and inheritance tax, 1884-2004," Working Paper Series, Center for Fiscal Studies 2009:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  7. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
  8. Islas-Camargo, Alejandro & Cortez, Willy W., 2011. "How relevant is monetary policy to explain Mexican unemployment fluctuations?," MPRA Paper 30027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "Constrained discretion in Sweden," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 33-44.
  10. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201302, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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