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Cointegration and common trends on the West German labour market

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  • Kai Carstensen

    ()
    (Institut fØr Statistik und ãkonometrie der Christian-Albrechts-UniversitÄt Kiel, Olshausenstr. 40, D-24098 Kiel, Germany)

  • Gerd Hansen

    ()
    (Institut fØr Statistik und ãkonometrie der Christian-Albrechts-UniversitÄt Kiel, Olshausenstr. 40, D-24098 Kiel, Germany)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the West German labour market by means of a cointegrated structural VAR model. We find sensible stable long-run relationships that are interpreted as a labour demand, a wage setting and a goods market equilibrium. In order to study the dynamic behaviour of the model we identify two common trends that push unemployment. We find that goods market shocks have only transitory impacts on unemployment. In the long run, it is almost equally determined by technology and labour supply factors. However, transitory shocks have major importance in the shorter run since adjustment processes are rather sluggish.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 475-493

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:25:y:2000:i:3:p:475-493

Note: received: Sept. 1998/Final version accepted: Feb. 2000
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Keywords: cointegration · common trends · structural shocks · unemployment;

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Cited by:
  1. Rita Duarte & Carlos Marques, 2013. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 613-638, April.
  2. Alexius, Annika & Holmlund, Bertil, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Elena Vakulenko, 2013. "Labour Market Analysis using Time Series Models: Russia 1999-2011," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 120/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  4. Tobias Linzert, 2004. "Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 224(3), pages 317-336, May.
  5. Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 409-431, June.

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