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How relevant is monetary policy to explain Mexican unemployment fluctuations?

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  • Islas-Camargo, Alejandro
  • Cortez, Willy W.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the effects of a monetary policy shock on Mexican unemployment rates. Unlike previous studies we re-estimate unemployment rates so that these alternative rates are comparable to those of the OECD member countries. We find that in response to tightening monetary policy, unemployment increases with a characteristic hump-shaped pattern found in other studies. Our empirical results indicate that unemployment elasticity is low and yet the velocity of adjustment to return to the initial point is rather high. We interpret these findings as being the result of two characteristics of Mexico’s labor market: (i) high labor regulation (which includes labor intervention in hiring-firing decisions), and (ii) the existence of a large informal sector and low enforcement of labor regulation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30027.

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Date of creation: 12 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30027

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Keywords: unemployment rates; structural VAR; monetary policy; Mexico;

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  1. James J. Heckman & Carmen Pages, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 7773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alfonso Mendoza V., 2003. "The Inflation-Output Volatility Tradeoff and Exchange Rate Shocks in Mexico and Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 27-51.
  3. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
  4. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2008. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 743-777, 03.
  5. Alcaraz Carlo, 2009. "Informal and Formal Labour Flexibility in Mexico," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  6. Annika Alexius & Bertil Holmlund, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Kiel Working Papers 1329, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
  8. Jeronimo Pastor & Alejandro Villagomez, 2007. "The structural budget balance: a preliminary estimation for Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(12), pages 1599-1607.
  9. Victoria Chick, 1983. "Macroeconomics after Keynes: A Reconsideration of the General Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262530457, December.
  10. Richard H. Clarida, 2005. "Japan, China, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 25(1), Winter.
  11. Revenga, Ana & Riboud, Michelle & DEC, 1993. "Unemployment in Mexico : its characteristics and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1230, The World Bank.
  12. Marc Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992.
  13. Carmen Pagés-Serra, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
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Cited by:
  1. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201302, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Conditional Patterns of Unemployment Dynamics in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79958, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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