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Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in an Open Economy

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Author Info

  • Jacobson, Tor

    ()
    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Jansson, Per

    (National Institute of Economic Research)

  • Vredin, Anders

    ()
    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Warne, Anders

    ()
    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of the effects of monetary policy shocks on the Swedish economy. A theoretical model of an open economy is used to identify a structural VAR model. The empirical results from the identified VAR model are compared with two less structural approaches for identification of monetary policy shocks. The first assumes that shocks can be measured as deviations from a forward looking interest rate rule, estimated using Sveriges Riksbank's (Swedish central bank) own forecasts. The second approach focuses on the effects of "narrative" monetary policy shocks as given by devaluations of the Swedish currency. We find that plausible theoretical restrictions often result in price puzzles. Although conventional results obtain with certain theoretical restrictions imposed on the VAR, another way to achieve this is by using external information about large policy shocks. Thus, we find that the effects of some devaluations are consistent with the conventional wisdom about the effects of monetary policy shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 134.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0134

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
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Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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Related research

Keywords: Common trends; devaluations; identification; inflation; monetary policy shocks; open economy; structural vector autoregression;

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References

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," International Finance 0004002, EconWPA.
  4. Bean, C R & Layard, P R G & Nickell, S J, 1986. "The Rise in Unemployment: A Multi-country Study," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S1-22, Supplemen.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  8. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
  9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1997. "Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1781-1816, December.
  11. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1994. "Common Trends and Hysteresis in Unemployment," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 34, Stockholm School of Economics.
  12. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1994. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 8, Stockholm School of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Villani, Mattias & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Monetary policy analysis in a small open economy using Bayesian cointegrated structural VARs," Working Paper Series 0296, European Central Bank.
  2. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., . "Dinero, Precios, Tasa de Interés y Actividad Económica: Un Modelo del Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 303, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Martha Misas A>rango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar Restrepo, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente En Colombia: Un Enfoque De Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas A Un Vec Estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003026, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Winkelried Quezada, Diego, 2004. "Tendencias comunes y análisis de la política monetaria en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 11.
  5. José Fernando Escobar R. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2005. "Dinero, precios, tasa de interés y actividad económica: un modelo del caso colombiano 1984:I-2003:IV," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-34, enero-mar.
  6. Claeys Peter, 2008. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," wp.comunite 0038, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  7. Alexius, Annika & Holmlund, Bertil, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Diego Vásquez Escobar, 2004. "Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes y Fluctuaciones en la Economía Colombiana: 1950-2002," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003550, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. repec:cml:incocp:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Lindé, Jesper, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: Sweden 1986-2002," Working Paper Series 153, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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