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Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint

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Claeys Peter

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Abstract

I reconsider the short-term effects of fiscal policy when both government spending and taxes are allowed to respond to the level of public debt. I embed the long-term government budget constraint in a VAR, and apply this common trends model to US quarterly data. The main finding is that fiscal consolidation has expansionary effects on output and inflation. Non-Keynesian effects also dominate when debt expands. The expectation of policy adjustments to guarantee fiscal sustainability by future tax rises or spending cuts contracts output today.

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Paper provided by Department of Communication, University of Teramo in its series wp.comunite with number 0038.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:0038

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy; sustainability; spending; taxes; common trends; SVAR;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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