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A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy

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Author Info

  • Jacobson, Tor

    ()
    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Jansson, Per

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Vredin, Anders

    ()
    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Warne, Anders

    ()
    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

The interest in empirical studies of monetary policy has increased in the last decade. The deregulation of financial markets and the increased use of explicit policy rules and targets have made monetary policy more transparent and interesting for economic analysis. This paper demonstrates how a VAR model with long run restrictions justified by economic theory can be usefully applied in analyses of issues central to monetary policy: the effects of innovations in interest rates and other shocks; the short and long run relationships between prices and nominal and real exchange rates; the properties of an index of monetary conditions; dynamic forecasts of inflation; and the relation between inflation and the output gap

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 77.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, pages 487-520.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0077

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
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Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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Related research

Keywords: Cointegration; Common stochastic trends; Monetary policy; Vector autoregressions;

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References

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  1. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Soderlind, P. & Vredin, A., 1994. "Applied Conintegration Analysis in the Mirror of Macroeconomic Theory," Papers 584, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
  6. Jacobson, T. & Vredin, A. & Warne, A., 1993. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Papers 558, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-52, June.
  8. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1998. "Comment on Glenn Rudebusch's "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?"," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 933-41, November.
  10. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  11. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
  13. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  15. Gamber, Edward N & Joutz, Frederick L, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1387-93, December.
  16. Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1991. " Current Account and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 511-30.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  18. Guy Debelle & Glenn Stevens, 1995. "Monetary Policy Goals for Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9503, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  20. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  21. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mukesh Khanal, 2011. "Monetary Neutrality in the Nepalese Economy during 1975-2008," Working Papers id:4647, eSocialSciences.
  2. Jang, Tae-Seok & Okano, Eiji, 2013. "Productivity shocks and monetary policy in a two-country model," Dynare Working Papers 29, CEPREMAP.
  3. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
  4. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  5. Mukesh Khanal, 2011. "Monetary Neutrality in the Nepalese Economy during 1975-2008," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 71-91, April.
  6. Héctor Bravo L. & Carlos García T., 2002. "Measuring Monetary Policy and Pass-Through in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 5-28, December.
  7. Mayes, David G. & Viren, Matti, 1998. "The Exchange Rate and Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area," Research Discussion Papers 27/1998, Bank of Finland.
  8. Grand Nathalie & Dropsy Vincent, 2005. "Exchange Rate And Inflation Targeting In Morocco And Tunisia," Macroeconomics 0507018, EconWPA.
  9. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy – Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Research Department of Statistics Norway.

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