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The Rise and Fall of Swedish Unemployment

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Author Info
Bertil Holmlund ()

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Abstract

By international standards, unemployment in Sweden remained remarkably low throughout the 1970s and the 1980s. In the early 1990s, however, the unemployment rate skyrocketed and hit double-digit levels. Unemployment remained high for several years but exhibited a marked fall from 1997 and onwards. The paper describes this development and discusses the causes of the rise and fall of unemployment. It is argued that the steep rise in unemployment was mainly the result of a series of adverse macroeconomic shocks, partly self-inflicted by bad policies and partly caused by unfavourable international developments. Institutional factors, such as a trend increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance, caused some secular rise in NAIRU but do not appear as promising explanations of the events of the early 1990s. The fall in unemployment in the late 1990s reflects a combination of favorable macroeconomic conditions and structural factors that may have reduced the NAIRU.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 918.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_918

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Related research
Keywords: unemployment employment macroeconomic shocks labor market institutions

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Holmlund, Bertil, 1997. "Macroeconomic Implications of Cash Limits in the Public Sector," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(253), pages 49-62, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen Nickell & Glenda Quintini, 2003. "Nominal wage rigidity and the rate of inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 762-781, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Andersson, Fredrik, 1999. "Job flows in Swedish manufacturing 1972-1996," Working Paper Series 1999:4, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fehr, Ernst, 2000. "The Robustness and Real Consequences of Nominal Wage Rigidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 2516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Holmlund, B. & Kolm, A.S., 1995. "Progressive Taxation, Wage Setting and Unemployment - Theory and Swedish Evidence," Papers 15, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    Other versions:
  6. Ernst Fehr & Lorenz Goette, 2000. "Robustness and Real Consequences of Nominal Wage Rigidity," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Calmfors, Lars & Forslund, Anders & Hemström, Maria, 2002. "Does active labour market policy work? Lessons from the Swedish experiences," Working Paper Series 2002:4, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Heyman, Fredrik & Arai, Mahmood, 2002. "The Impact of Temporary Contracts on Gross Job and Worker Flows," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0494, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2003. "Employment, mobility, and active labor market programs," Working Paper Series 2003:3, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2002. "Public employment and labour market performance," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 7-66, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Steve Nickell & Jan van Ours, 2000. "The Netherlands and the United Kingdom: a European unemployment miracle?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 135-180, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Holmlund, Bertil, 1993. "Wage setting in private and public sectors in a model with endogenous government behavior," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 149-162, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  14. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Andrea Bassanini & Ekkehard Ernst & Sébastien Jean & Paulo Santiago & Paul Swaim, 2001. "Product and Labour Markets Interactions in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 312, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. repec:fth:bfdipa:7/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Carling, Kenneth & Edin, Per-Anders & Harkman, Anders & Holmlund, Bertil, 1996. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits, and labor market programs in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 313-334, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 8120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Layard, R. & Nickell, S., . "Layard-Nickell," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics layardnickell, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Bertil Holmlund & Donald Storrie, 2002. "Temporary Work In Turbulent Times: The Swedish Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F245-F269, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact Of Young Workers On The Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Rantala, Anssi, 2001. "Does monetary union reduce employment?," Research Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  24. Jennifer Hunt, 1999. "Has Work-Sharing Worked In Germany?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 117-148, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Nymoen, Ragnar & Rodseth, Asbjorn, 2003. "Explaining unemployment: some lessons from Nordic wage formation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Holden, Steinar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2002. " Measuring Structural Unemployment: NAWRU Estimates in the Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 104(1), pages 87-104. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Assarsson, Bengt & Jansson, Per, 1998. "Unemployment Persostence: The Case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 25-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Forslund, Anders & Gottfries, Nils & Westermark, Andreas, 2005. "Real and Nominal Wage Adjustment in Open Economies," Working Paper Series 2005:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Erixon, Lennart, 2005. "Travelling Along the Third Way. A Swedish Model of Stabilisation, Equity and Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2005:10, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Olivier Blanchard, 2005. "European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 11750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Annika Alexius & Bertil Holmlund, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Kiel Working Papers 1329, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Carsten Ochsen, 2004. "On the Measurement of Mismatch," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 44, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Blomquist, Sören & Christiansen, Vidar, 2004. "Taxation and Heterogeneous Preferences," Working Paper Series 2004:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2004. "Scarring effects of the first labour market experience: A sibling based analysis," Working Paper Series 2004:14, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  8. Aronsson, Thomas & Blomquist, Sören, 2004. "Redistribution and Provision of Public Goods in an Economic Federation," Working Paper Series 2004:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. repec:ese:iserwp: is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Oskar Nordström Skans & Per-Anders Edin & Bertil Holmlund, 2007. "Wage dispersion between and within plants: Sweden 1985-2000," NBER Working Papers 13021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Gustavsson, Magnus, 2004. "Changes in Educational Wage Premiums in Sweden: 1992-2001," Working Paper Series 2004:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  12. Eliason, Marcus & Storrie, Donald, 2004. "The Echo of Job Displacement," Working Papers in Economics 135, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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