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Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

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  • Carlo Altavilla
  • Floro E. Caroleo

Abstract

This paper analyses whether active labour market policies (ALMPs) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P-VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMPs on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P-VAR models estimated are synthesized by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to: (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate; and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMPs and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics. Copyright 2006 The Authors; Journal compilation 2006 CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEIS in its journal LABOUR.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 349-382

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Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:20:y:2006:i:2:p:349-382

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References

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  1. Hujer, Reinhard & Caliendo, Marco, 2000. "Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policy: Methodological Concepts and Empirical Estimates," IZA Discussion Papers 236, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Francesco Pastore, 2004. "La disoccupazione giovanile in Italia. La riforma dei sistemi d'istruzione e di formazione professionale come alternativa alla flessibilità numerica per accrescere l'occupabilità," CELPE Discussion Papers 83, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
  3. McCall, John J, 1970. "Economics of Information and Job Search," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 113-26, February.
  4. Richard Jackman & Christopher A. Pissarides & S Savouri, 1990. "Labour Market Policies and Unemployment in the OECD," CEP Discussion Papers dp0011, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  6. Lars Calmfors & Anders Forslund & Maria Hemström, 2002. "Does Active Labour Market Policy Work? Lessons from the Swedish Experiences," CESifo Working Paper Series 675, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  8. Nickell, S. & Layard, R., 1997. "Labour Market Institutions and Economic Performance," Papers 23, Centre for Economic Performance & Institute of Economics.
  9. Hujer, Reinhard & Caliendo, Marco & Zeiss, Christopher & Blien, Uwe, 2002. "Macroeconometric evaluation of active labour market policies in Germany - a dynamic panel approach using regional data," ERSA conference papers ersa02p225, European Regional Science Association.
  10. Calmfors, Lars & Skedinger, Per, 1995. "Does Active Labor Market Policy Increase Employment? Theoretical Considerations and Some Empirical Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 429, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  12. Robert G. Fay, 1996. "Enhancing the Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Programme Evaluations in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
  13. Rettore Enrico & Trivellato Ugo & Martini Alberto, 2003. "La valutazione delle politiche del lavoro in presenza di selezione: migliorare la teoria, i metodi o i dati?," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 301-342.
  14. Calmfors, Lars & Lang, Harald, 1995. "Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Programmes in a Union Wage-Setting Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 601-19, May.
  15. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  16. repec:fth:iniesr:429 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carlo Altavilla & Floro Ernesto Caroleo, 2013. "Asymmetric Effects of National-based Active Labour Market Policies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(9), pages 1482-1506, October.
  2. Marianna Belloc & Riccardo Tilli, 2013. "Unemployment by gender and gender catching-up: Empirical evidence from the Italian regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(3), pages 481-494, 08.
  3. Altavilla, Carlo & Caroleo, Floro Ernesto, 2009. "Unintended Effects of National-based Active Labour Market Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 4045, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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