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Do We Know How Low Inflation Should Be?

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Author Info
Wyplosz, Charles

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Abstract

The Paper looks for evidence of grease and sand effects in Europe, in particular the possibility that the natural rate of unemployment is affected by the inflation rate. Looking at four countries, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland, the Paper reports some preliminary evidence that the long-run rate of unemployment is a non-linear function of inflation. The particular shape of the empirical relationship supports the view that a moderate level of inflation provides some ‘grease’ to the price and wage setting process. In particular, the long-run rate of unemployment is found to reach a maximum of between 0.5% and 1%, and to decline quickly for higher rates of inflation. For the range of inflation rates observed in the sample countries, there is no evidence of sand effects, that uncertainty associated with inflation adversely affect the long-run rate of unemployment.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2722.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2722

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; Natural Rate Of Unemployment;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Price Level Targeting vs Inflation Targeting : A free Lunch?," Papers 614, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    Other versions:
  2. Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-98, December.
    Other versions:
  3. David Card & Dean Hyslop, 1996. "Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?," NBER Working Papers 5538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Stanley Fischer, 1996. "Why are central banks pursuing long-run price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-34. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  6. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2000-1), pages 1-60. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  10. Erica L. Groshen & Mark E. Schweitzer, 1997. "Identifying Inflation's Grease and Sand Effects in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 6061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Wyplosz, Charles, 1999. "Financial Restraints and Liberalization in Postwar Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 2253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1.
    Other versions:
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
  13. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Holden, Steinar, 1994. "Wage bargaining and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1021-1039, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Edmund Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Structural booms," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 83-126, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1996. "Inflation and growth: in search of a stable relationship," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 139-146. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ana Maria Loboguerrero & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Inflation and Labor Market Flexibility: The Squeaky Wheel Gets the Grease," RES Working Papers 4347, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Tobias Linzert, 2005. "The Unemployment Inflation Trade-Off in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 1699, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 05/89, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Steinar Holden & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2004. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Europe," Working Paper 2004/5, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ana Maria Loboguerrero & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Inflación y flexibilidad del mercado laboral: La rueda que chilla es la que se engrasa," RES Working Papers 4348, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Steinar Holden & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2007. "Downward nominal wage rigidity in the OECD," Working Paper Series 777, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Petra Gerlach, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2009. "The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation," IMF Working Papers 09/34, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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