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Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia

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Author Info
Debelle, Guy
Vickery, James

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Abstract

The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework. This paper investigates the possibility that the Phillips curve is indeed a curve, and shows that a convex short-run Phillips curve may be a more accurate representation of reality than the traditionally used linear specification. The paper also discusses the policy implications of convexity in the Phillips curve. These include the need for policy to be forward looking and to act preemptively. Convexity provides a strong rationale for stabilization policy, and it reinforces the need for policymakers to proceed cautiously. It also implies that deep recessions may have only a marginally greater disinflationary impact than shallower ones, unless they induce large credibility bonuses. Copyright 1998 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 74 (1998)
Issue (Month): 227 (December)
Pages: 384-98
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:74:y:1998:i:227:p:384-98

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in a small open economy: The irish context," MPRA Paper 11363, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Emayenesh Seyoum-Tegegn, 2008. "State & Territory Beveridge Curvesand the National Equilibrium Unemployment Rate," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1033, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001. "Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 01/7, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard A. Ashley & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification in Phillips Curve Regressions: Quantifying Frequency Dependence in This Relationship While Allowing for Feedback," Working Papers e06-11, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pui Chi Ip, 2004. "Inflation and Growth Targeting," Research Papers 0401, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Yeşim Kuştepeli, 2005. "A comprehensive short-run analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 581-591, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Do we know how low inflation should be?," HEI Working Papers 06-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  10. JUNCAL CUñNADO & FERNANDO PÉREZ DE GRACIA, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Discussion Papers 2008-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Gordon de Brouwer, 1998. "Estimating Output Gaps," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9809, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mardi Dungey & John Pitchford, 1999. "The Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 414, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. James Vickery, 1999. "Unemployment and Skills in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-12, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  16. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Mardi Dungey & John Pitchford, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Growth on Inflation, Australia, Canada and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 438, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
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