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Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia

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  • Debelle, Guy
  • Vickery, James

Abstract

The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework. This paper investigates the possibility that the Phillips curve is indeed a curve, and shows that a convex short-run Phillips curve may be a more accurate representation of reality than the traditionally used linear specification. The paper also discusses the policy implications of convexity in the Phillips curve. These include the need for policy to be forward looking and to act preemptively. Convexity provides a strong rationale for stabilization policy, and it reinforces the need for policymakers to proceed cautiously. It also implies that deep recessions may have only a marginally greater disinflationary impact than shallower ones, unless they induce large credibility bonuses. Copyright 1998 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 74 (1998)
Issue (Month): 227 (December)
Pages: 384-98

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:74:y:1998:i:227:p:384-98

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