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Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme

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Author Info
Beissinger, Thomas

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Abstract

In diesem Beitrag werden die wichtigsten Erkenntnisse zu Ausmaß und Ursachen der strukturellen Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa vor dem Hintergrund eines einheitlichen theoretischen Bezugrahmens zusammengefasst, erklärt und bewertet. Die strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit wird in der Literatur üblicherweise als diejenige Arbeitslosigkeit interpretiert, die langfristig mit einer konstanten Inflationsrate vereinbar ist. Diese Arbeitslosenquote wird auch als langfristige NAIRU oder natürliche Arbeitslosenquote bezeichnet. Die kritische Würdigung verschiedener Verfahren zur Schätzung der langfristigen NAIRU und ein kurzer Überblick über die Ergebnisvielfalt verschiedener empirischer Studien machen deutlich, dass NAIRU-Schätzungen derzeit keine präzisen Aussagen über das Ausmaß der strukturellen Arbeitslosigkeit zulassen. Empirische Untersuchungen zu den Determinanten der langfristigen NAIRU legen die Vermutung nahe, dass die internationalen Unterschiede in Entwicklung und Niveau der langfristigen NAIRU am besten durch die Interaktion von makroökonomischen Schocks und Institutionen erklärt werden können. Die detaillierte Betrachtung der einzelnen Studien macht allerdings die geringe Robustheit und die teilweise widersprüchlichen Schätzergebnisse deutlich. Die makroökonometrische Evidenz zu Ausmaß und den Ursachen der strukturellen Ar-beitslosigkeit muss bei dem derzeitigen Stand der Forschung daher mit Vorsicht beurteilt werden.

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Paper provided by University of Regensburg, Department of Economics in its series Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft with number 389.

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Date of creation: 28 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:373

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Keywords: NAIRU; natural rate of unemployment; labor market institutions; NAIRU; natürliche Arbeitslosenquote; Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen; Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit; Phillips-Kurve; Arbeitsmarkttheorie; Arbeitsmarkt / Struktur;

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