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Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?

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Author Info
Franz, Wolfgang
Abstract

This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve (e.g. in times of low in ation), the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, the (mis-)measurement of important variables such as in ation expectations, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using direct measures of in ationary expectations, the Kalman filter method, and the residual-based bootstrap procedure (in order to estimate confidence intervals). However, by any method, simple or complex, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-35.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1345

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Related research
Keywords: NAIRU unemployment inflation Phillips curve natural rate hysteresis supply shocks inflation expectations Kalman filter bootstrap

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Franz, Wolfgang & Pfeiffer, Friedhelm, 2002. "The Rationale for Wage Rigidity : Survey Evidence from German and US Firms," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-60, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2001. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Working Paper Series 065, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Stiglitz, Joseph, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  9. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2003. "Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients With the VC Program," Discussion Papers in Economics 34, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes," CEPR Discussion Papers 777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, . "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  12. Snower, Dennis & Karanassou, Marika, 2002. "An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 635, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  13. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Julian Benedict Morgan & Silvia Fabiani, 2003. "Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 213, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Solow, Robert M, 1986. "Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S23-34, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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