IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5520.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Disinflation and the NAIRU

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence Ball

Abstract

This paper asks why the NAIRU rose in most OECD countries in the 1980s. I find that a central cause was the tight monetary policy used to reduce inflation. The evidence comes from a cross-country comparison: countries with larger decreases in inflation and longer disinflationary periods have larger rises in the NAIRU. Imperfections in the labor market have little direct relation to changes in the NAIRU, but long-term unemployment benefits magnify the effects of disinflation. These results support `hysteresis' theories of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Ball, 1996. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Working Papers 5520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5520
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5520.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-218, May.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    3. Jackman, R. & Layard, R. & Nickell, S., 1996. "Combatting unemployment: is flexibility enough?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 47446, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Junankar, P.N. & Madsen, J.B., 1994. "Unemployment in the OECD: Models, Myths and Mysteries," Papers 278, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
    5. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Assar Lindbeck & Dennis J. Snower, 1989. "The Insider-Outsider Theory of Employment and Unemployment," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262074x, December.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    9. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
    10. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    5. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rob Calvert Jump, 2022. "An Estimation of Unemployment Hysteresis," Working Papers PKWP2221, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynés & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Sciences Po publications n°2004-06, Sciences Po.
    7. António Afonso & André Albuquerque, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 46, pages 49-70, July.
    8. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bruno Damásio & Diogo Martins, 2017. "Do Labour Market Reforms Pay Off? Unemployment and Capital Accumulation in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Lawrence F Katz, 1998. "Reflections on US Labour Market Performance," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1907 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Hysteresis," Economics Series Working Papers 250, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Aurélien GAIMON & Vincent LAPEGUE & Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Noé N’SEMI & Frédéric REYNÈS & Maël THEULIERE, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle? a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    18. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," Working Papers hal-03602950, HAL.
    21. Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2006. "Hysteresis Vs. Nairu And Convergence Vs. Divergence: The Behavior Of Regional Unemployment Rates In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 161, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    22. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Kevin S. Nell, 2006. "Structural Change And Nonlinearities In A Phillips Curve Model For South Africa," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 600-617, October.
    25. De-Chih Liu, 2011. "Hysteresis Hypothesis in Job Creation and Destruction: Evidence from the U.S," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 389-409, November.
    26. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    27. Franz, Wolfgang & Smolny, Werner, 1993. "Sectoral wage and price formation and working time in Germany: An econometric analysis," Discussion Papers 5, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    28. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03602950, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.