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Disinflation and the NAIRU

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Author Info
Laurence Ball
Abstract

This paper asks why the NAIRU rose in most OECD countries in the 1980s. I find that a central cause was the tight monetary policy used to reduce inflation. The evidence comes from a cross-country comparison: countries with larger decreases in inflation and longer disinflationary periods have larger rises in the NAIRU. Imperfections in the labor market have little direct relation to changes in the NAIRU, but long-term unemployment benefits magnify the effects of disinflation. These results support `hysteresis' theories of unemployment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5520.

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Date of creation: Mar 1996
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Publication status: published as Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, C. Romer and D. Romer, eds.,(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1997)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5520

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General

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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  2. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. A Carruth & M Hooker & A Oswald, 1994. "Unemployment, Oil Prices and the Real Interest Rate: Evidence from Canada and the UK," CEP Discussion Papers 0188, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Specificity," NBER Working Papers 5757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2008. "Disinflation and the NAIRU in a New-Keynesian New-Growth Model," MPRA Paper 9753, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lindbeck, Assar, 1997. "The European Employment Problem," Seminar Papers 616, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1997. "The FOMC in 1996: "watchful waiting"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 7-23. [Downloadable!]
  6. Holmlund, Bertil, 1997. "Unemployment Insurance in Theory and Practice," Working Paper Series 1997:25, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. bruno amable & jerome henry & frederic lordon & richard topol, 2005. "Complex Remanence vs. Simple Persistence: Are Hysteresis and Unit-Root Processes observationally equivalent?," Computational Economics 0501001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hasan Bakhshi & Andrew G. Haldane & Neal Hatch, 1998. "Some Costs and Benefits of Price Stability in the United Kingdom," NBER Working Papers 6660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rod Cross, Douglas Strachan, 2001. "Three Pillars of Conventional Wisdom," Review of Political Economy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 181-200, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Annamaria Simonazzi, Paola Villa, 1999. "Flexibility and Growth," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 281-311, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Assar Lindbeck, 1996. "The West European employment problem," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 609-637, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Junankar, P. N. (Raja) & Madsen, Jakob B., 2004. "Unemployment in the OECD: Models and Mysteries," IZA Discussion Papers 1168, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Tiiu Paas & Raul Eamets, 2002. "Labour Flexibility and Migration in the EU Eastward Enlargement Context: The Case of the Baltic States," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp11, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
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