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Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos

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  • GÓMEZ GARCÍA, F.
  • REBOLLO SANZ, Y.
  • USABIAGA IBÁÑEZ, C.

    ()
    (*Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales. Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

Abstract

En este trabajo proporcionamos diversas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española para el período 1976-2000. Así, confrontamos los resultados que se obtienen para la economía española aplicando una batería de métodos directos (métodos basados en la curva de Phillips ampliada) bastante habituales en la literatura internacional de los últimos años. Entre otras cuestiones, prestamos atención a la robustez e imprecisión de estas estimaciones, a la causalidad en esta área y al fenómeno de histéresis en el desempleo. Aparte de encontrar evidencia de causalidad desde las desviaciones del desempleo observado respecto a las NAIRUs estimadas hacia la inflación, y de histéresis en el desempleo, nuestro análisis concluye que es necesario un esfuerzo de investigación adicional en esta área si deseamos seguir aplicando estos métodos a la economía española, por los problemas de falta de robustez y notable imprecisión detectados. In this article different NAIRU estimates for the Spanish economy in the period 1976-2000 are offered. The results obtained from the application of different direct methods (methods based on an extended Phillips curve) frequently used in the international literature in recent years are compared. Among other aspects, we pay attention to the robustness and precision of these estimates, to causality in this area and to the phenomenon of hysteresis in unemployment. Our results show that, although we find evidence of causality from the difference between observed unemployment and the NAIRU estimates to inflation, it is necessary an additional research effort in this area if we wish to continue applying this kind of methods for the Spanish economy, because we have detected problems of lack of robustness and precision. We have also found evidence of hysteresis in unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 20 (2002)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 509-530

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:20_3_8

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Related research

Keywords: Phillips Curve; NAIRU; Hysteresis; Hodrick-Prescott Filter; Kalman Filter.;

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References

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  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0009, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  4. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
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  8. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  11. Ray C. Fair, 1999. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 58-62, May.
  12. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0009, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  14. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
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  17. Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2007. "La Curva De Phillips Y La Crítica De Friedman," Contribuciones a la Economía, Grupo Eumed.net (Universidad de Málaga), issue 2007-12, December.
  2. Dionisio Ramirez & Gabriel Rodr¨ªguez, 2014. "Do Labor Reforms in Spain Have an Effect on the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate?," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 105-120, January.

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