GÓMEZ GARCÍA, F. REBOLLO SANZ, Y. USABIAGA IBÁÑEZ, C. () (*Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales. Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
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En este trabajo proporcionamos diversas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española para el período 1976-2000. Así, confrontamos los resultados que se obtienen para la economía española aplicando una batería de métodos directos (métodos basados en la curva de Phillips ampliada) bastante habituales en la literatura internacional de los últimos años. Entre otras cuestiones, prestamos atención a la robustez e imprecisión de estas estimaciones, a la causalidad en esta área y al fenómeno de histéresis en el desempleo. Aparte de encontrar evidencia de causalidad desde las desviaciones del desempleo observado respecto a las NAIRUs estimadas hacia la inflación, y de histéresis en el desempleo, nuestro análisis concluye que es necesario un esfuerzo de investigación adicional en esta área si deseamos seguir aplicando estos métodos a la economía española, por los problemas de falta de robustez y notable imprecisión detectados. In this article different NAIRU estimates for the Spanish economy in the period 1976-2000 are offered. The results obtained from the application of different direct methods (methods based on an extended Phillips curve) frequently used in the international literature in recent years are compared. Among other aspects, we pay attention to the robustness and precision of these estimates, to causality in this area and to the phenomenon of hysteresis in unemployment. Our results show that, although we find evidence of causality from the difference between observed unemployment and the NAIRU estimates to inflation, it is necessary an additional research effort in this area if we wish to continue applying this kind of methods for the Spanish economy, because we have detected problems of lack of robustness and precision. We have also found evidence of hysteresis in unemployment.
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Volume (Year): 20 (2002) Issue (Month): (Diciembre) Pages: 509-530 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:20_3_8
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
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