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What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment

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Author Info
Blanchard, Olivier
Katz, Lawrence F

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Abstract

Over the past three decades, much research has attempted to identify the determinants of the natural rate of unemployment. The authors reach two main conclusions about this body of work. First, there has been considerable theoretical progress over the past thirty years. A framework emerged that can be used to think, for example, about the relation between technological progress and unemployment. Second, empirical knowledge lags behind. Economists don't have a good quantitative understanding of the determinants of the natural rate, either across time or countries. The authors look at two issues, the relation of wages to unemployment and the rise of European unemployment. Copyright 1997 by American Economic Association.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 11 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 51-72
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:11:y:1997:i:1:p:51-72

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  7. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Di Tella, R. & MacCulloch, R., 1996. "The Determination of Unemployment Benefits," Economics Series Working Papers 99180, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  31. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Consumption Smoothing Benefits of Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 192-205, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  37. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1998. "Technological Progress, Job Creation and Job Destruction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 733-753, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  39. Lawrence F. Katz & Bruce D. Meyer, 1990. "The Impact of the Potential Duration of Unemployment Benefits on the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 2741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  40. Card, David, 1990. "Unexpected Inflation, Real Wages, and Employment Determination in Union Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 669-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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