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The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries

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Author Info
Odile Chagny () (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
Frédéric Reynès () (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
Henri Sterdyniak () (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)

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Abstract

This paper examines theoretically and empirically the controversial notion of equilibrium rate of unemployment (ERU) which opposes proponents of the Phillips curve to those of the WS/PS models. Theoretically, this paper shows that the specification of the wage equation has a significant influence on the ERU. It also shows that an asymmetric wage-price setting using a Phillips curve and a price equation in level allows a clear distinction between the medium run ERU and the long run ERU that can be seen as a reconciliation between WS/PS models and the Phillips curve. Moreover, this paper calculates ERU for 6 OECD countries (the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain and the Netherlands) for the period 1970-late 1990’s by using a structural approach. As there are little studies that test directly the impact of institutional variables in a Phillips curve, the first empirical objective is to test this effect. The results in this matter are not really conclusive. The second objective is to calculate medium run and long run ERU. The evolutions of the medium run ERU explain relatively well those of the actual unemployment rate until the late eighties. Its determinants are the slowdown of productivity growth, the 2 oil shocks, the increase of employer’s social contribution and the change in the inflation target of the monetary authorities. In the nineties, the actual unemployment lies clearly above its equilibrium level suggesting that a big part of the European unemployment is due to an excess supply.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2002-04.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: published in Revue de l'OFCE, n° 81 - avril 2002.
Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0204

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Related research
Keywords: labor market; equilibrium unemployment; Phillips curve; WS/PS model; Three Stage Least Squares estimation; OECD.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Belot, M.V.K. & Ours, J.C. van, 2001. "Unemployment and labor market institutions : an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper 50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Burda, Michael C. & Weder, Mark, 2001. "Complementarity of Labor Market Institutions, Equilibrium Unemployment and the Propagation of Business Cycles," Discussion Paper Series 26367, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Den Haan, Wouter & Haefke, Christian & Ramey, Gary, 2001. "Shocks and Institutions in a Job Matching Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 2970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  5. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, . "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eric Heyer & Frederic Reynes & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  3. Aurélien GAIMON & Vincent LAPEGUE & Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Noé N’SEMI & Frédéric REYNÈS & Maël THEULIERE, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle? a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  4. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudré, 2007. "On the contingency of equilibrium exchange rates with time- consistent economic policies," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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