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The effectiveness of economic policy and position in the cycle: the case of tax reductions on overtime in France

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  • Eric Heyer

Abstract

The economic situation of all the major developed countries has changed significantly during the 2007--10 period. Yet many economic policies have been kept in place. This is true in particular of a key measure in French government policy: tax reductions on overtime hours and their exemption from social charges. In this article we propose simulations of this scheme based on the economic context in which it is implemented. According to our simulations, this kind of measure is pro-cyclical and therefore poorly suited to the current situation of the French economy. Furthermore, even in the case of good conditions, the scheme would not be funded. Without financing, this measure would widen the deficit and would amount to a fiscal stimulus. Financing it through an increase in levies would radically change its nature. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 364-379

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:27:y:2011:i:2:p:364-379

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  1. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2010. "Assessing the Impact of the Financial Crisis on Structural Unemployment in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 767, OECD Publishing.
  2. Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5% en France ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1625, Sciences Po.
  3. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
  4. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
  5. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
  6. Jean-Philippe Cotis & Nicolas Sobczak & Renaud Méary, 1998. "Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 921-935.
  7. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
  8. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  9. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
  10. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 024, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  11. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
  12. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mathieu Plane & Eric Heyer, 2007. "La défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires: quels impacts micro et macroéconomiques?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2979, Sciences Po.
  14. Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5% en France ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1625, Sciences Po.
  15. Nicolas Sobczak & Renaud Méary & Jean-Philippe Cotis, 1998. "Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 921-935.
  16. Yannick L’Horty & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Les causes du chômage en France. Une ré-estimation du modèle ws-ps," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(2), pages 271-294.
  17. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hih3p91bh is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Eric Heyer, 2011. "Faut-il revenir sur la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires ? Simulation et première évaluation de ce dispositif," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.

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