Le retour au plein emploi ?
AbstractFrom 1997 to 2001, the French unemployment rate fell by around 4 points. We show it can reach 5 % in 2005 under favorable but realistic assumptions. Lower interest rates could imply a higher investment rate, which would however remain under its level in the 60s. This would allow a 1.1 point fall of the unemployment rate. The external trade could contribute positively to growth and account for a 0.9 point fall of the unemployment rate, despite a slowing down international trade. Working time reduction and a neutral Fiscal Policy are also important assumptions. More over, the NAIRU, estimated at 9 % at least, should fall. We draw alternative scenarios where full employment is reached later because of an less favorable international environment and where the unemployment rate remains over 7 %, because the NAIRU doesn? diminish.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.
Volume (Year): 79 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm
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