Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?
AbstractThe financial and banking crisis in France, as in all industrialized countries, has had a considerable impact on the activity and evolution of public finances. If the lack of activity accumulated since the beginning of the crisis is expected to take over the next decade, the level of public debt (percent of GDP), however, should keep long-term effect of this crisis (2030). The purpose of this paper is to assess from different growth scenarios, the different trajectories of balances and public debt over the next two decades. Finally, beyond the uncertainties concerning the evolution of long term growth, we tested sensitivity to long-term debt to several assumptions (sustained rise in interest rates, fiscal policy more or less restrictive, etc.). JEL classification codes: E2, E62, E66, H68.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.
Volume (Year): n° 112 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm
long term outlook; public debt; public deficit;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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