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Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation

Author

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  • Jean-Philippe Cotis
  • Renaud Méary
  • Nicolas Sobczak

Abstract

[fre] Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation. . Ce texte tente d'explorer - sous les angles théorique et empirique - l'hypothèse selon laquelle le taux d'intérêt réel pourrait avoir un effet durable sur le taux de chômage d'équilibre. L'analyse s'appuie sur un modèle de négociations salariales augmenté d'une demande de capital, et donc d'un processus endogène d'accumulation du capital, qui permet notamment d'évaluer les rôles respectifs de la productivité du travail et du taux d'intérêt réel dans la montée du taux de chômage d'équilibre en France depuis vingt ans.. Les résultats obtenus à l'aide d'une stratégie d'estimation multivariée montrent que ce modèle semble compatible avec les données dans le cas français. À l'issue de ce travail, il apparaît que la hausse du taux de chômage d'équilibre depuis 1974, qui s'établirait aujourd'hui autour de 10 %, trouverait son origine dans l'élévation régulière du prélèvement fiscalo-social et des taux d'intérêt réels depuis le début des années quatre-vingt. [eng] Equilibrium unemployment in france : an assessment. . This paper makes a theoretical and empirical investigation of the assumption that the real interest rate has a permanent effect on the equilibrium unemployment rate. The model extends the Layard-Nickell-Jackman standard wage bargaining framework (1991), which is parameterised by the capital stock by including the long-run optimal capital stock determined by the real worldwide interest rate in a small open economy. This framework proves to be a very useful way to assess the role of productivity and interest rates in the rise of European equilibrium unemployment.. We use the Johansen procedure to estimate and identify, on quarterly French data, the cointegration relations suggested by the theoretical model. Although the robustness of the results has to be confirmed, the model is not rejected by the data. We conclude that the rise of equilibrium unemployment in France since 1974 may result from the increase of both the tax wedge and real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Philippe Cotis & Renaud Méary & Nicolas Sobczak, 1998. "Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 921-935.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1998_num_49_3_410022
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    Cited by:

    1. Berson, Clémence & Ferrari, Nicolas, 2015. "Financial incentives and labour market duality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 77-92.
    2. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa & Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE, 1998. "Pour une réforme du financement de la Sécurité sociale," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 67(1), pages 155-205.
    3. Eric Heyer, 2011. "The effectiveness of economic policy and position in the cycle: the case of tax reductions on overtime in France," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 364-379.
    4. Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle : le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01069450, HAL.
    5. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2001. "Le retour au plein emploi ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 195-233.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1949 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    8. David Spector, 2001. "Emploi : une analyse critique des politiques malthusiennes," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 13-31.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1949 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h561p0po1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," Sciences Po publications 2007-34, Sciences Po.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Rozenn Desplatz & Stéphanie Jamet & Vladimir Passeron & Fabrice Romans, 2003. "La modération salariale en France depuis le début des années 1980," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 367(1), pages 39-67.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5281 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1949 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.

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