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Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area

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Author Info
Camille Logeay () (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))
Silke Tober () (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))
Abstract

This paper analyses the Nairu in the euro area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early 1970s. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit exogenous variables. In particular, real interest rates were found to explain a quarter of the increase in the Nairu between 1980 and 1995. This indicates the possibility of a long-run nonsuperne utrality of monetary policy.

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Paper provided by European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes in its series Economics Working Papers with number 024.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:epr:enepwp:024

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Related research
Keywords: Nairu; Monetary Policy; Kalman Filter; Phillips curve; Superneutrality.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
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  5. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lindbeck, Assar, 1995. " Welfare State Disincentives with Endogenous Habits and Norms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 97(4), pages 477-94, December.
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  7. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77. [Downloadable!]
  9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1998. "The Causes and Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0400, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2002. "Natural rate doubts," Working Paper Series 121, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lockwood, Ben, 1991. "Information Externalities in the Labour Market and the Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 733-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Acocella, Nicola & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Labor market regimes and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers in Economics 145, Göteborg University, Department of Economics, revised 22 Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sujit Kapadia, 2003. "The Capital Stock and Equilibrium Unemployment: A New Theoretical Perspective," Economics Series Working Papers 181, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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