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Die NAIRU: Eine post-keynesianische Interpretation

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  • Hein, Eckhard

Abstract

Dem neu-keynesianischen langfristigen Gleichgewichtskonzept einer durch Strukturfaktoren des Arbeitsmarktes, der Lohnverhandlungen und der sozialen Sicherungssysteme bestimmten inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) wird in diesem Beitrag eine post-keynesianische Interpretation der NAIRU gegenübergestellt. In den neu-keynesianischen Modellen müssen wirksame Realkasseneffekte oder symmetrische Reaktionen und Wirkungen der Geldpolitik angenommen werden, damit sich die Güternachfrage langfristig an das mit der NAIRU kompatible Niveau des Güterangebots anpasst. Diese Annahmen sind für eine Geldwirtschaft unhaltbar, in der Geld über Gläubiger-Schuldner-Kontrakte entsteht und in der von Zinssatz und Profiterwartungen gesteuerte Investitionen die wesentliche Determinante von Produktion und Beschäftigung sind. In einem post-keynesianischen Modell stellt die NAIRU daher lediglich eine kurzfristige Beschäftigungsgrenze dar, die durch inflationsauslösende Verteilungsansprüche gegeben ist und durch die Geldpolitik erzwungen wird. Liegt die durch die effektive Güternachfrage bestimmte Arbeitslosenquote oberhalb der NAIRU, so existieren kurzfristig keine Anpassungsmechanismen. Langfristig folgt die NAIRU jedoch der tatsächlichen Arbeitslosenquote und wird damit durch die Entwicklung der effektiven Nachfrage bestimmt. Hierfür werden verschiedene Kanäle identifiziert. Es wird zudem gezeigt, dass effektiv koordinierte Lohnverhandlungssysteme sehr viel besser als restriktive Geldpolitiken in der Lage sind, die Inflationsrate bei hoher Beschäftigung zu stabilisieren. Effektiv koordinierte Tarifverhandlungssysteme haben zudem den großen Vorteil, dass sie eine Stabilisierung der Inflationsrate auch bei sinkender Beschäftigung ermöglichen und so ein unmittelbares Abgleiten der Ökonomie in makroökonomisch schädliche Deflationsprozesse verhindern können. --

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Paper provided by Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung in its series WSI Discussion Papers with number 113.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wsidps:113

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Cited by:
  1. Seifert, Hartmut & Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexicurity: Reconciling Social Security with Flexibility - Empirical Findings for Europe," WSI Discussion Papers 154, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  2. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept – opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," Macroeconomics 0412007, EconWPA.
  3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Hysteresis," IMK Working Paper 15-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  4. Truger, Achim, 2003. "Germany's Poor Economic Performance in the Last Decade: It's the Macroeconomy, not Institutional Sclerosis," WSI Discussion Papers 118, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  5. Hein, Eckhard & Schulten, Thorsten, 2004. "Unemployment, Wages and Collective Bargaining in the European Union," WSI Discussion Papers 128, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  6. Pusch, Toralf, 2007. "Verteilungskampf und geldpolitische Sanktion," Working Papers on Economic Governance 23, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  7. Eckhard Hein & Torsten Niechoj, 2005. "Leitlinien für ein dauerhaftes Wachstum in der EU? Konzept und Wirkung der Grundzüge der Wirtschaftspolitik," Macroeconomics 0501008, EconWPA.
  8. Truger, Achim & Schulten, Thorsten & Hein, Eckhard, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," WSI Discussion Papers 124, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  9. Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexibility-Flexicurity-Flexinsurance: Response to the European Commission's Green Paper "Modernising Labour Law to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century"," WSI Discussion Papers 149, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  10. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "On the European readiness for flexicurity: Empirical evidence with OECD/HBS methodologies and reform proposals," WSI Discussion Papers 160, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  11. Tangian, Andranik & Seifert, Hartmut, 2006. "Globalization and deregulation : Does flexicurity protect atypically employed?," WSI Discussion Papers 143, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  12. Tangian, Andranik, 2012. "Statistical test for the mathematical theory of democracy," WSI Discussion Papers 179, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.

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