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Die NAIRU: Eine post-keynesianische Interpretation

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  • Hein, Eckhard

Abstract

Dem neu-keynesianischen langfristigen Gleichgewichtskonzept einer durch Strukturfaktoren des Arbeitsmarktes, der Lohnverhandlungen und der sozialen Sicherungssysteme bestimmten inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) wird in diesem Beitrag eine post-keynesianische Interpretation der NAIRU gegenübergestellt. In den neu-keynesianischen Modellen müssen wirksame Realkasseneffekte oder symmetrische Reaktionen und Wirkungen der Geldpolitik angenommen werden, damit sich die Güternachfrage langfristig an das mit der NAIRU kompatible Niveau des Güterangebots anpasst. Diese Annahmen sind für eine Geldwirtschaft unhaltbar, in der Geld über Gläubiger-Schuldner-Kontrakte entsteht und in der von Zinssatz und Profiterwartungen gesteuerte Investitionen die wesentliche Determinante von Produktion und Beschäftigung sind. In einem post-keynesianischen Modell stellt die NAIRU daher lediglich eine kurzfristige Beschäftigungsgrenze dar, die durch inflationsauslösende Verteilungsansprüche gegeben ist und durch die Geldpolitik erzwungen wird. Liegt die durch die effektive Güternachfrage bestimmte Arbeitslosenquote oberhalb der NAIRU, so existieren kurzfristig keine Anpassungsmechanismen. Langfristig folgt die NAIRU jedoch der tatsächlichen Arbeitslosenquote und wird damit durch die Entwicklung der effektiven Nachfrage bestimmt. Hierfür werden verschiedene Kanäle identifiziert. Es wird zudem gezeigt, dass effektiv koordinierte Lohnverhandlungssysteme sehr viel besser als restriktive Geldpolitiken in der Lage sind, die Inflationsrate bei hoher Beschäftigung zu stabilisieren. Effektiv koordinierte Tarifverhandlungssysteme haben zudem den großen Vorteil, dass sie eine Stabilisierung der Inflationsrate auch bei sinkender Beschäftigung ermöglichen und so ein unmittelbares Abgleiten der Ökonomie in makroökonomisch schädliche Deflationsprozesse verhindern können. --

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Paper provided by Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung in its series WSI Discussion Papers with number 113.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wsidps:113

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Cited by:
  1. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0412008, EconWPA.
  2. Tangian, Andranik & Seifert, Hartmut, 2006. "Globalization and deregulation : Does flexicurity protect atypically employed?," WSI Discussion Papers, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung 143, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
  4. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "On the European readiness for flexicurity: Empirical evidence with OECD/HBS methodologies and reform proposals," WSI Discussion Papers, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung 160, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  5. Tangian, Andranik, 2012. "Statistical test for the mathematical theory of democracy," WSI Discussion Papers, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung 179, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  6. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten, 2004. "Unemployment, wages and collective bargaining in the European Union," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0412006, EconWPA.
  7. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept – opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0412007, EconWPA.
  8. Pusch, Toralf, 2007. "Verteilungskampf und geldpolitische Sanktion
    [The struggle over distribution and monetary sanction]
    ," MPRA Paper 15228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Eckhard Hein & Torsten Niechoj, 2005. "Leitlinien für ein dauerhaftes Wachstum in der EU? Konzept und Wirkung der Grundzüge der Wirtschaftspolitik," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0501008, EconWPA.
  10. Seifert, Hartmut & Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexicurity: Reconciling Social Security with Flexibility - Empirical Findings for Europe," WSI Discussion Papers, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung 154, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  11. Truger, Achim, 2003. "Germany's Poor Economic Performance in the Last Decade: It's the Macroeconomy, not Institutional Sclerosis," WSI Discussion Papers, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung 118, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
  12. Tangian, Andranik, 2007. "Flexibility-Flexicurity-Flexinsurance: Response to the European Commission's Green Paper "Modernising Labour Law to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century"," WSI Discussion Papers, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung 149, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.

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