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Monetary policy and wage bargaining in the EMU: restrictive ECB policies, high unemployment, nominal wage restraint and inflation above the target

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  • Eckhard Hein

    ()
    (Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI) in der Hans Boeckler Stiftung, Düsseldorf (Germany))

Abstract

Assessing the effects of monetary policy and wage bargaining on employment andinflation in the European Monetary Union (EMU), the first step sees development of a Post-Keynesian competitive claims model of inflation with endogenous money. In this model the NAIRU is considered to be a short-run limit to employment enforced by independent and conservative central banks. In the long run, however, the NAIRU will follow actual unemployment and is therefore also dependent on the forces determining aggregate demand, including monetary policies. But the NAIRU may also be reduced through effectively co-ordinated wage bargaining, as has been shown by institutional political economists. Applying these considerations to the economic performance of the EMU, different scenarios determined by wage bargainingcoordination and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policies are developed. It is shown that the first phase of the EMU was dominated by uncoordinated wage bargaining across the EMU and an "anti-growth-bias" of theECB. Thus the euro area was plagued with nominal wage restraint, highunemployment and inflation above the ECB target. Economic performance will improve if the ECB abandons its asymmetric monetary strategy. This may be facilitated by a higher degree of effective wage bargaining co-ordination across the EMU.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal BNL Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): 55 (2002)
Issue (Month): 222 ()
Pages: 299-337

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Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2002:33

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Keywords: Bargaining; EMU; European Monetary Union; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Monetary Union; Monetary; Money; Policy; Union; Wage Bargaining; Wage;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hein, Eckhard & Truger, Achim, 2013. "Future fiscal and debt policies: Germany in the Context of the European Monetary Union," IPE Working Papers 24/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
  2. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
  3. Eckhard Hein & Nina Dodig & Natalia Budyldina, 2014. "Financial, economic and social systems: French Regulation School, Social Structures of Accumulation and Post-Keynesian approaches compared," Working papers wpaper22, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
  4. Hein, Eckhard & Truger, Achim, 2010. "Finance-dominated capitalism in crisis – the case for a Global Keynesian New Deal," MPRA Paper 21175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Herr, Hansjörg, 2013. "An analytical framework for the Post-Keynesian macroeconomic paradigm," IPE Working Papers 23/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
  6. Hein, Eckhard & Truger, Achim, 2005. "European Monetary Union: nominal convergence, real divergence and slow growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 7-33, March.
  7. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Rebalancing in the Euro Area: A Critique of the German Debt Brake from a Post-Keynesian Perspective," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_776, Levy Economics Institute.

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