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Future fiscal and debt policies: Germany in the Context of the European Monetary Union

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  • Hein, Eckhard
  • Truger, Achim

Abstract

Currently fiscal policies in Germany seem to be in a very comfortable position and the German Debt Brake is regarded as an institutional precondition for this success and has been exported to the Euro area in the guise of the Fiscal Compact. In this paper we scrutinize German fiscal policies and its new national and European institutional constraints from a macroeconomic perspective. We start by reiterating the requirements for fiscal policies of member countries in a currency union like the Euro area from a Post-Keynesian perspective and examine German fiscal policies in the period from 1999 until 2007 against this theoretical background. We then turn to German fiscal policies during the Great Recession, the German Debt Brake, the Fiscal Compact and future perspectives, and analyse the associated problems and risks. Finally, we discuss alternative scenarios which could avoid the deflationary pressures of the German Debt Brake and the Fiscal Compact on domestic demand and contribute to internally rebalancing the Euro area. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE) in its series IPE Working Papers with number 24/2013.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:242013

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Web page: http://www.ipe-berlin.org/
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Keywords: fiscal policy; government deficits and debt; debt brake; fiscal compact; Germany; Euro area;

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References

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
  3. Achim Truger & Katja Rietzler & Henner Will & Rudolf Zwiener, 2010. "Alternative Strategien der Budgetkonsolidierung in Österreich nach der Rezession," IMK Studies 02-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  4. Louis-Philippe Rochon & Mark Setterfield, 2007. "Interest rates, income distribution, and monetary policy dominance: Post Keynesians and the "fair rate" of interest," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 13-42, October.
  5. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger & Till van Treeck, 2011. "The European Financial and Economic Crisis: Alternative Solutions from a (Post-) Keynesian Perspective," IMK Working Paper 9-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  6. Christian Dreger & Jiri Slacalek, 2007. "Finanzmarktentwicklung, Immobilienpreise und Konsum," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(35), pages 533-536.
  7. Gregor Semieniuk & Till van Treeck & Achim Truger, 2011. "Nothing learned from the crisis? Some remarks on the Stability Programmes 2011-2014 of the Euro area governments," IMK Working Paper 11-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Eckhard Hein & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
  9. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Crisis of Finance-dominated Capitalism in the Euro Area: Deficiencies in the Economic Policy Architecture and Deflationary Stagnation Policies," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_734, Levy Economics Institute.
  10. Till van Treeck & Silke Tober & Achim Truger & Michael Brecht, 2010. "Squaring the circle in Euroland? Some remarks on the Stability and Convergence Programmes 2010-2013," IMK Working Paper 3-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  11. van Treeck, Till & Sturn, Simon, 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 470934, International Labour Organization.
  12. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  13. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2007. "Distribution and growth in France and Germany - single equation estimations and model simulations based on the Bhaduri/Marglin-model," IMK Working Paper 04-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  14. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Eckhard Hein & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2010. "Macroeconomic Policy Mix, Employment and Inflation in a Post-Keynesian Alternative to the New Consensus Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 317-354.
  16. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro area - Lessons for the Future," IMK Working Paper 07-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  17. Hein, Eckhard & Mundt, Matthias, 2012. "Financialisation and the requirements and potentials for wage-led recovery : a review focussing on the G20," ILO Working Papers 470932, International Labour Organization.
  18. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2006. "Germany's post-2000 stagnation in the European context - a lesson in macroeconomic mismanagement," IMK Working Paper 03-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  19. C. W.M. Naastepad & Servaas Storm, 2007. "OECD demand regimes (1960-2000)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(2), pages 211-246, January.
  20. Eckhard Hein, 2002. "Monetary policy and wage bargaining in the EMU: restrictive ECB policies, high unemployment, nominal wage restraint and inflation above the target," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(222), pages 299-337.
  21. Thomas I. Palley, 2011. "Monetary Union Stability: The Need for a Government Banker and the Case for a European Public Finance Authority," IMK Working Paper 2-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  22. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
  23. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2008. "Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 479-511, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Jörg Bibow, 2013. "Lost at Sea: The Euro Needs a Euro Treasury," IMK Studies 35-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  2. Jorg Bibow, 2013. "Lost at Sea: The Euro Needs a Euro Treasury," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_780, Levy Economics Institute.

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