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Statistical test for the mathematical theory of democracy

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  • Tangian, Andranik
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    Abstract

    In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion. -- In der Ökonomie und den anderen Sozialwissenschaften wird immer wieder versucht, komplexe Prozesse der Wirklichkeit durch numerische Modelle abzubilden - was mit Abstraktionen für z. B. Verhaltens- und Wirkungsrelationen mehr oder weniger gut gelingt. Solche Versuche sind Gegenstand einer Vorlesungsreihe 'Mathematische Theorie der Demokratie' des Autors an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät des Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie. Ein neues Ergebnis in diesem Bereich wird hier vorgelegt in Form eines statistischen Tests, der entscheiden soll, ob eine politische Partei oder eine Parteienkoalition repräsentativ im Sinn der Bevölkerungsmehrheit agiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird die Übereinstimmung von Parteien- oder Koalitionspositionen mit Ergebnissen von Meinungsumfragen in der Bevölkerung verglichen, etwa zur Einführung eines bundesweiten gesetzlichen Mindestlohns oder der Privatisierung des Schienenverkehrs und anderem mehr. Der Test basiert auf der Einschätzung der statistischen Signifikanz der beobachteten Übereinstimmung (d.h. wie wahrscheinlich ist eine nur zufällige Übereinstimmung), um die Hypothese von der Repräsentativität der Politik zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. Die Studie spielt die Repräsentativität von einzelnen Parteien sowie von Zweier- und Dreier-Koalitionen durch. Darunter ist auch die Konstellation der fünf großen deutschen Parteien und ihrer potentiell möglichen Koalitionen auf der Basis der Bundestagswahl von 2009.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung in its series WSI Discussion Papers with number 179.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wsidps:179

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    Keywords: mathematical theory of democracy; statistical test; parties; coalitions; representativeness; Bernoulli matrices; sums of random vectors;

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    References

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    3. Dribbusch, Heiner, 2010. "Tarifkonkurrenz als gewerkschaftspolitische Herausforderung: Ein Beitrag zur Debatte um die Tarifeinheit," WSI Discussion Papers 172, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
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    6. Tangian, Andranik S., 2005. "Composite indicator of German regional policy and its use for optimizing subsidies to regional labour markets," WSI Discussion Papers 138, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    7. Schulten, Thorsten, 2004. "Foundations and Perspectives of Trade Union Wage Policy in Europe," WSI Discussion Papers 129, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    8. Hein, Eckhard, 2003. "Die NAIRU: Eine post-keynesianische Interpretation," WSI Discussion Papers 113, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    9. Tangian, Andranik, 2006. "Monitoring flexicurity policies in Europe from three different viewpoints," WSI Discussion Papers 145, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    10. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics 0412008, EconWPA.
    11. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "Towards Consistent Principles of Flexicurity," WSI Discussion Papers 159, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    12. Eckhard Hein, 2007. "Interest Rate, Debt, Distribution And Capital Accumulation In A Post-Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 310-339, 05.
    13. Tangian, Andranik, 2009. "Towards computer-aided collective bargaining: Enhancing the trade unions position under flexicurity," WSI Discussion Papers 165, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
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    15. Bothfeld, Silke, 2007. "Labour Market Institutions in Germany : Current Status and Ongoing Reforms," WSI Discussion Papers 152, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    16. Tangian, Andranik S., 2004. "Defining the flexicurity index in application to European countries," WSI Discussion Papers 122, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    17. Leiber, Simone, 2009. "Armutsvermeidung im Alter: Handlungsbedarf und Handlungsoptionen," WSI Discussion Papers 166, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    18. Seifert, Hartmut, 2004. "Flexibility through working time accounts : reconciling economic efficiency and individual time requirements," WSI Discussion Papers 130, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    19. Tangian, Andranik, 2009. "Six families of flexicurity indicators developed at the Hans Boeckler Foundation," WSI Discussion Papers 168, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    20. Tangian, Andranik, 2008. "On the European readiness for flexicurity: Empirical evidence with OECD/HBS methodologies and reform proposals," WSI Discussion Papers 160, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
    21. Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Seifert, Hartmut, 2009. "Deutsches "Beschäftigungswunder" und flexible Arbeitszeiten," WSI Discussion Papers 169, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Stiftung.
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