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Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area

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Author Info
Camille Logeay
Silke Tober
Abstract

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit exogenous variables. In particular real interest rates were found to explain a quarter of the increase in the Nairu between 1980 and 1995. This indicates the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 351.

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Length: 37 p.
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp351

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Related research
Keywords: Nairu; Monetary Policy; Kalman Filter; Phillips curve; Superneutrality;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Acocella, Nicola & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Labor market regimes and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers in Economics 145, Göteborg University, Department of Economics, revised 22 Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lemoine , Matthieu & Mazzi , Gian Luigi & Monperrus-Veroni , Paola & Reynes, Frédéric, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for theeuro-area: comparing production function with unobserved componentsand SVAR approaches," MPRA Paper 13128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sujit Kapadia, 2003. "The Capital Stock and Equilibrium Unemployment: A New Theoretical Perspective," Economics Series Working Papers 181, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Beissinger, Thomas, 2004. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," Regensburger Diskussionsbeiträge zur Wirtschaftswissenschaft 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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