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A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU

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Author Info

  • Rafael Domenech
  • Mayte Ledo
  • David Taguas

Abstract

In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forwardlooking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates to different kinds of shocks affecting the economy, under the assumption that the ECB implements the monetary policy described by the estimated interest rate rule. Comparisons with backward-looking models for the United States show that our forward-looking model produces less persistence of the endogenous variables in response to shocks of the same magnitude.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 0102.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0102

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Related research

Keywords: IS curve; inflation; interest rate rule; monetary policy;

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Cited by:
  1. MOONS, Cindy & GARRETSEN, Harry & VAN AARLE, Bas & FORNERO, Jorge, 2007. "Monetary policy in the new-Keynesian model: An application to the Euro-Area," Working Papers 2007014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  2. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Ifigeneia Skotida, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area in the Presence of Heterogeneity," Working Papers 62, Bank of Greece.
  3. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
  4. Danfeng Kong & Osamu Kamoike, . "The stability condition of a forward looking Taylor rule," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  5. Séverine Menguy, 2009. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 121-141.
  6. Mayer, Eric, 2003. "The mechanics of a reasonably fitted quarterly New Keynesian macro model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 41, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  7. Männistö , Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model: combining long-run views of financial markets with macro forecasting," Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland.

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