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Neues von der NAIRU?

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  • Franz, Wolfgang

Abstract

Der Beitrag enthält eine Neuschätzung der inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) für Westdeutschland 1980 bis 1998. Nach einer Darstellung des konzeptionellen Rahmens der NAIRU einschließlich verschiedener Varianten, welche beispielsweise exogenen Schocks und dem Hysterese-Phänomen Rechnung tragen, erfolgt eine Diskussion verschiedener methodischer Probleme. Erstmalig werden für Westdeutschland dann eine zeitvariable NAIRU mit Hilfe des Kalman-Verfahrens sowie dazugehörige Konfidenzbänder unter Verwendung der residualbasierten Bootstrap-Methode geschätzt. Demnach liegt die westdeutsche NAIRU Ende des Jahres 1998 im Intervall zwischen 7.9 und 8.5 v.H. Zahlreiche methodische Vorbehalte sprechen indes dafür, diese und andere NAIRU Schätzungen mit Vorsicht zu interpretieren. -- This paper is devoted to a new estimation of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the West German Economy 1980 to 1998. The novelty of the paper is the estimation of a time-varying NAIRU for West Germany employing the Kalman method together with confidence intervals based on the application of a residual based bootstrap. As a result, the NAIRU for 1998 is estimated to lie between 7.9 and 8.5 percent. However, based on a presentation of the theoretical framework and a discussion of serious methodological problems the paper emphasizes several caveats which leave some doubts about the usefulness of the value of NAIRU estimates as guides for economic policy.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 00-41.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5324

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References

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  1. Hans-Joachim Schalk & Jörg Lüschow & Gerhard Untiedt, 1997. "Wachstum und Arbeitslosigkeit : gibt es noch einen Zusammenhang?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 50(17-18), pages 03-14, October.
  2. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
  5. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
  9. Wolfgang Franz & Robert J. Gordon, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Thenes," NBER Working Papers 4292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Michael Reutter, 2000. "Hysteresis in West German Unemployment Reconsidered," CESifo Working Paper Series 240, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
  12. John DiNardo & Mark P. Moore, 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 7328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2000. "Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Jul).
  14. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
  15. Ray C. Fair, 1999. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 58-62, May.
  16. Gebhard Flaig & Claudia Ploetscher, 2000. "Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 233, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  18. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Die Entwicklung der Arbeitslosenquote: Ein langfristiger Vergleich zwischen Deutschland und den USA," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(16), pages 14-19, 08.
  2. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
  3. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
  4. Jacobi, Lena & Kluve, Jochen, 2007. "Before and after the Hartz reforms: The performance of active labour market policy in Germany," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 40(1), pages 45-64.
  5. Knoppik, Christoph & Beissinger, Thomas, 2001. "How Rigid are Nominal Wages? Evidence and Implications for Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 357, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Wolfgang Pollan, . "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
  7. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  8. Hassler, Uwe & Neugart, Michael, 2002. "Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff and Regional Labor Market Data," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 37697, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  9. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2003. "Inflation and the Skewness of the Distribution of Relative Price Changes - Empirical Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 223(2), pages 136-158.
  10. repec:iab:iabmit:v:36:i:4:p:411-427 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, 05.
  12. Linzert, Tobias, 2005. "The Unemployment Inflation Trade-Off in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 1699, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Andreas Brenck & Arnold Berndt & Karl-Peter Naumann, 2003. "Neues Tarifsystem der Deutschen Bahn: Sinnvolle Preisgestaltung im öffentlichen Verkehr?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(16), pages 3-13, 08.
  14. Quaas, Georg & Klein, Mathias, 2010. "Der Beitrag alternativer NAIRU-Kurven zur Erklärung der Inflation
    [The Contribution of Alternative NAIRU-curves to the Explanation of Inflation]
    ," MPRA Paper 26176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Jochen Kluve & Lena Jacobi, 2006. "Before and After the Hartz Reforms: The Performance of Active Labour Market Policy in Germany," RWI Discussion Papers 0041, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
  16. repec:iab:iabzaf:v:40:i:1:p:45-64 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, 8.

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