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A Survey of Recent Econometric Work on the NAIRU

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  • Roy Cromb
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    Abstract

    Compares Layard, Nickell and Jackman's empirical model of UK unemployment with other time-series econometric studies to assess whether the balance of evidence supports their analysis. Compares estimates of the effect on the UK NAIRU of factors such as benefits, union strength, mismatch, taxes, the exchange rate and hysteresis. Highlights and discusses differences of approach – e.g. to the exogeneity of the real exchange rate, the permanence of wedge effects and to hysteresis. Empirical results are found to be very sensitive to the precise way in which models are formulated and estimated. This suggests that any estimates of the level of the NAIRU are likely to be unreliable. Finds however, considerable empirical support for the kind of interactions between wages, prices and unemployment that Layard, Nickell and Jackman include in their model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.

    Volume (Year): 20 (1993)
    Issue (Month): 1/2 (January)
    Pages: 27-51

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:20:y:1993:i:1/2:p:27-51

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economics; Modelling; Unemployment; United Kingdom;

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    Cited by:
    1. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2001. "Identification and dimension of the NAIRU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 585-611, December.
    2. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998. "Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June.
    3. Florence Thibault & Yannick L'Horty, 1997. "Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 83-99.
    4. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, 1999. "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England.
    5. Murphy, Kevin J. & Payne, James E., 2003. "Explaining change in the natural rate of unemployment: A regional approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 345-368.
    6. repec:iab:iabmit:v:36:i:4:p:411-427 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    8. Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, 2003. "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England.
    9. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    10. Rod Cross & Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland, 1997. "Uncertainties Surrounding Natural Rate Estimates in the G7," Working Papers 9712, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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