Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ángel Estrada

    (Banco de España)

  • Ignacio Hernando

    (Banco de España)

  • J. David López-Salido

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish economy. We implement some of the procedures proposed in the literature to estimate the NAIRU, describing their advantages and disadvantages. Our analysis shows that these alternative approaches provide significantly different point estimates of the NAIRU. Moreover, whenever some measures of the precision of the estimate are available, the degree of uncertainty is remarkable. Thus, our main conclusion is that the usefulness of the NAIRU concept as a general guideline for discussing and analyzing macroeconomic policy is very limited, given the current state of economic research on this area.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/00/Fic/dt0009e.pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0009.

as in new window
Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0009

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.bde.es/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: macroeconomics; unemployment; taxes; prices; wages;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Daveri, Francesco & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1060-70, November.
  4. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-18, May.
  5. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2000. "Staggered price setting, translog preferences, and endogenous persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 657-680, June.
  6. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  7. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 1998. "Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle Persistence," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 105, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  8. Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, . "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR apporach," Working Papers 96-19, FEDEA.
  9. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Small Estimated Euro-Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1284, Econometric Society.
  10. Evans, George W & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Francisco Gómez García & Carlos Usabiaga Ibáñez, . "Las estimaciones de la NAIRU: Una valoración de conjunto," Studies on the Spanish Economy 31, FEDEA.
  13. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  16. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & David López-Salido, 1998. "The Long-Run Effect of Permanent Disinflations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9825, Banco de Espa�a.
  17. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Short-Term and Long-Term Trends, Seasonal Adjustment, and the Business Cycles," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9918, Banco de Espa�a.
  18. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. P. McAdam & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "The NAIRU Concept - Measurement uncertainties, hysteresis and economic policy role," European Economy - Economic Papers 136, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  20. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
  21. John M. Roberts, 1990. "The sources of business cycles: a monetarist interpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  23. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  24. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  25. Ana R. de Lamo & Juan J. Dolado, 1993. "Un modelo del mercado de trabajo y la restricción de oferta en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 87-118, January.
  26. Beatriz Rodríguez Prado, 1995. "La tasa natural de desempleo en la economía española: un intento de cuantificación," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 3, pages 133-151, Junio.
  27. Juan J. Dolado & J. David López-Salido & Juan L. Vega, 2000. "Unemployment and inflation persistence in Spain: Are there Phillips trade-offs?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 267-291.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Grüner, Hans Peter & Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2005. "Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0490, European Central Bank.
  2. Albert van der Horst, 2003. "Structural estimates of equilibrium unemployment in six OECD economies," CPB Discussion Paper 19, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Juncal Cunnado & Fernando PErez De Gracia, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: Some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337.
  4. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "La función de producción de Cobb-Douglas y la economía española," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 12, pages 9-38.
  5. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
  6. Willman, Alpo & Estrada, Ángel, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model," Working Paper Series 0149, European Central Bank.
  7. repec:iab:iabmit:v:36:i:4:p:411-427 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  9. Emilie Jašová & Božena Kaderábková, 2012. "Comparing NAIRU and Economic Cycle from the Perspective of Labour Market in the Countries of the Visegrad Group," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 3-23.
  10. Ravi Balakrishnan, 2001. "The interaction of firing costs and on-the-job search: an application of a search theoretic model to the Spanish labour market," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0102, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre.
  12. Božena Kadeřábková & Emilie Jašová, 2011. "Analysis of the Indicator NAIRU on the Sector Level," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 508-525.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mar�a Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de Espa�a).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.