Unemployment and inflation persistence in Spain: Are there Phillips trade-offs?
AbstractThis paper studies the dynamic behavior of inflation and unemployment in Spain during the period 1964-1997. In particular, we analyze the implications of high persistence in both unemployment and inflation dynamics for inference regarding the size of Phillips trade-offs and sacrifice ratios in the Spanish economy, in response to a demand shock. To do so we use a Stuctural VAR approach with several identification outlines which give rise to alternative interpretations of the joint unemployment-inflation dynamics. When using a bivariate VAR we cannot reject the existence of a permanent output loss of one-half of one percentage point for each percentage point of permanent disinflation. However, when the VAR is augmented with a third variable, in order to disentangle monetary from non-monetary shocks within the demand class, the evidence favours a lower and marginally permanent trade-off with an output loss of about one-fourth of one percentage point.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Spanish Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 2 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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