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Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Doménech

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • Víctor Gómez

    (Ministerio de Hacienda)

Abstract

Este trabajo propone un nuevo método de descomposición del PIB en sus componentes estructural y cíclico utilizando un modelo de componentes no observables, que aprovecha la información que la tasa de desempleo y la tasa de inversión contienen sobre la posición cíclica de la economía. El modelo, que permite también recuperar una estimación de la tasa de desempleo estructural compatible con la ley de Okun, se estima por máxima verosimilitud utilizando el filtro de Kalman en el que las condiciones iniciales son parcialmente difusas, mientras que los componentes no observables se estiman utilizando un algoritmo de suavizado. (Copyright: Fundación SEPI)

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Doménech & Víctor Gómez, 2005. "Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(2), pages 259-288, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:29:y:2005:i:2:p:259-288
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    2. Velilla, Jorge, 2021. "Regional and national results on entrepreneurship using GEM data," MPRA Paper 110323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mauricio SANTAMARIA SALAMANCA & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO & Gustavo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Norberto ROJAS DELGADILLO, 2013. "Crecimiento económico y desempleo: Retos a largo plazo," Archivos de Economía 11202, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Componente cíclico del PIB; Ley de Okun; inversión; filtro de Kalman.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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