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Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty

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  • Grüner, Hans Peter
  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Hefeker, Carsten

Abstract

Recent theoretical research has studied extensively the link between wage setting and monetary policymaking in unionized economies. This paper addresses the question of the role of monetary uncertainty from both an empirical and theoretical point of view. Our analysis is based on a simple model that derives the influence of monetary uncertainty on unionized wage setting. We construct an indicator of monetary policy uncertainty and test our model with data for the G5 countries. The central finding is that monetary policy uncertainty has a negative impact on nominal wage growth in countries where wage setting is relatively centralized. This result is consistent with recent theoretical approaches to central bank transparency and wage setting. JEL Classification: E58

Suggested Citation

  • Grüner, Hans Peter & Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2005. "Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty," Working Paper Series 490, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005490
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Mohr, 2005. "A Trend-Cycle(-Season) Filter," Econometrics 0508004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2015. "Central bank communication in the financial crisis: Evidence from a survey of financial market participants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 166-181.
    3. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2014. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement, Determinants, and Economic Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 739-770, September.
    4. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2008. "Central bank's conservativeness and transparency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 179-187, December.
    5. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2012. "Inflation uncertainty and unemployment uncertainty: Why transparency about monetary policy targets matters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 119-122.
    6. Christoph S. Weber, 2020. "The unemployment effect of central bank transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2947-2975, December.
    7. Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Zimmer, Blandine, 2009. "Monetary accommodation and unemployment: Why central bank transparency matters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 119-121, February.
    8. Daniel Laskar, 2008. "Monetary policy uncertainty and macroeconomic performance: An extended non-bayesian framework," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586883, HAL.
    9. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2011. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 163-178, February.
    10. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2011. "Monetary strictness and labour market outcomes under incomplete transparency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 95-99, June.
    11. Rzońca, Andrzej & Ciżkowicz, Piotr, 2005. "Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contraction in new member states," Working Paper Series 519, European Central Bank.
    12. Oros, Cornel & Zimmer, Blandine, 2015. "Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-93.
    13. Hefeker, Carsten & Zimmer, Blandine, 2011. "The optimal choice of central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 595-606.
    14. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier & Matthias Uhl, 2014. "Topics in Fiscal Policy: Evidence from a Representative Survey of the German Population," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201412, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2010. "Central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty: Substitutes or complements?," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 140-10, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
    16. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2011. "Robust central banking under wage bargaining: Is monetary policy transparency beneficial?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 432-438, January.
    17. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2011. "Robust central banking under wage bargaining: Is monetary policy transparency beneficial?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 432-438.
    18. Daniel Laskar, 2008. "Monetary policy uncertainty and macroeconomic performance: An extended non-bayesian framework," Working Papers halshs-00586883, HAL.

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    Keywords

    centralized wage setting; Monetary policy uncertainty; union behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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