Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union in the Presence of Uncertainty about the Central Bank Preferences

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Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union in the Presence of Uncertainty about the Central Bank Preferences

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Meixing DAI
Moïse SIDIROPOULOS

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine the link between political transparency of a common central bank (CCB) and decentralized supply-side fiscal policies in a monetary union. We find that the opacity of a conservative CCB has a restrictive effect on national fiscal policies since each government internalizes the influence of its actions on the common monetary policy and thus reinforces the disciplinary effect of institutional constraints such as the Stability and Growth Pact on national fiscal authorities. However, more opacity could imply higher inflation and unemployment when the union is large enough and induce higher inflation and output-gap variability. An enlargement of the union incites national governments to increase tax rate, and weakens the disciplinary effects of opacity on member countries if fiscal policymaking is relatively decentralized and the CCB quite conservative. It induces an increase in the level of inflation and unemployment, and could increase inflation and outputgap variability.

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Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2009-06.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2009-06

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Paper
- Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moise, 2008. "Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union in the Presence of Uncertainty about the Central Bank Preferences," MPRA Paper 13907, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-03-22 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2009-03-22 (Central Banking)
NEP-MAC-2009-03-22 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2009-03-22 (Monetary Economics)

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