Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Has EMU Had Any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Adam S. Posen

    ()
    (Institute for International Economics)

  • Daniel Popov Gould

    (Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

This working paper investigates the European Monetary Unification’s (EMU) effect on wage restraint—the degree to which wage increases do or do not exceed productivity growth. We find in cross-sectional investigations that wage restraint either is unchanged or has increased following EMU in the vast majority of countries. This finding contradicts the predictions of a widely cited family of models of coordination of labor market bargaining. In particular, one would have expected Germany to display the greatest decline in wage restraint post-EMU under these models, but in our time-series analysis we find no indication of such a decline. The overall shift toward greater wage restraint is consistent with the models that emphasize the gains from monetary credibility. The time-series evidence on Italy, which shows a significant increase in wage restraint after eurozone entry, also supports this view. That said, the increase in wage restraint in the eurozone is matched by that associated with the increase in credibility seen in the United Kingdom and Sweden after their adoption of inflation targeting post-1992.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/wp/wp06-6.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP06-6.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp06-6

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036-1903
Phone: 202-328-9000
Fax: 202-659-3225
Email:
Web page: http://www.piie.com
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: EMU; wage bargaining; monetary credibility; productivity;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  2. Saint-Paul, G. & Bentolila, S., 2000. "Will EMU Increase Eurosclerosis?," Papers 0004, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  3. Michel Dumont & Glenn Rayp & Peter Willemé, 2006. "Does internationalization affect union bargaining power? An empirical study for five EU countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 77-102, January.
  4. Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Why EMU is Irrelevant for the German Economy," Working Paper Series WP99-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991. "Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence," NBER Working Papers 3664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Adam Posen, 1995. "Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?," Staff Reports 1, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 1999. "Labour Markets and Monetary Union: A Strategic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Soskice, David & Iversen, Torben, 1998. "Multiple Wage-Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 110-24, Autumn.
  9. C Bean, 1992. "European Unemployment: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01.
  12. Lars Calmfors, 1993. "Centralisation of Wage Bargaining and Macroeconomic Performance: A Survey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 131, OECD Publishing.
  13. Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1115, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Bernd Hayo, 2007. "Is European Monetary Policy Appropriate for the EMU Member Countries? A Counterfactual Analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 36, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  15. Sibert, Anne & Sutherland, Alan, 2000. "Monetary union and labor market reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 421-435, August.
  16. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Hammour, Mohamad L., 1998. "Jobless growth: appropriability, factor substitution, and unemployment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 51-94, June.
  17. David Soskice & Torben Iversen, 2000. "The Nonneutrality Of Monetary Policy With Large Price Or Wage Setters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 265-284, February.
  18. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/24, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 1999. "Central bank independence, centralization of wage bargaining, inflation and unemployment:: Theory and some evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1395-1434, June.
  20. Romain Duval & Jørgen Elmeskov, 2005. "The Effects of EMU on Structural Reforms in Labour and Product Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 438, OECD Publishing.
  21. John Driffill, 2006. "The Centralization of Wage Bargaining Revisited: What Have we Learnt?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 731-756, November.
  22. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  23. Olivier Blanchard & Thomas Philippon, 2004. "The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 10590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Adam S. Posen (ed.), 2005. "Euro at Five: Ready for a Global Role?, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr18, July.
  25. Posen, Adam S, 1998. "Do Better Institutions Make Better Policy? Review," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 173-205, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 0927, European Central Bank.
  2. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Wage restraint and monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 134-142, January.
  3. Nicolas Canry & Arnaud Lechevalier, 2006. "Wage share variations in France and Germany since 1970: what does really matter?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00140529, HAL.
  4. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2009. "National prices and wage setting in a currency union," Working Paper Series 1058, European Central Bank.
  5. Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Working Paper Series 227, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  6. Carsten Hefeker, 2006. "The monetary policy consequences of enlargement," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(4), pages 29-34, December.
  7. Ulf Söderström, 2010. "Reevaluating Swedish Membership in the European Monetary Union: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 379-414 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp06-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peterson Institute webmaster).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.