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Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank

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  • Bernd Hayo

    (Universities of Bonn & Duisburg-Essen)

  • Boris Hofmann

    (ZEI, University of Bonn)

Abstract

We estimate monetary policy reaction functions for the Bundesbank (1979:4-1998:12) and the European Central Bank (1999:1-2003:7). The Bundesbank regime can be characterised, both before and after German reunification, by an inflation weight of 1.2 and an output weight of 0.4. The estimates for the ECB are 1.2, and 1, respectively. Thus, the ECB, while reacting similarly to expected inflation, puts significantly more weight on stabilising the business cycle than the Bundesbank did.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0312007.

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Date of creation: 19 Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0312007

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Keywords: Taylor rule; monetary policy; ECB; Bundesbank;

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References

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  1. Clausen, Volker & Hayo, Bernd, 2002. "Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from the first years," ZEI Working Papers B 09-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2003. "Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0206, European Central Bank.
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 247-274 Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Rafael Domenech & Mayte Ledo & David Taguas, 2000. "Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US," Working Papers 0002, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  5. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May.
  6. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Macroeconomics 0403009, EconWPA.
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  8. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  10. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  12. Ilian Mihov, 2001. "Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 369-406, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "The Role of Asset Prices in Euro Area Monetary Policy: Specification and Estimation of Policy Rules and Implications for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2005,6, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  2. von Hagen, Jürgen & Hofmann, Boris, 2003. "Macroeconomic implications of low inflation in the euro area," ZEI Working Papers B 29-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  3. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Grüner, Hans Peter & Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2005. "Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0490, European Central Bank.
  5. Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
  6. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. C.J.M. Kool, 2005. "What Drives ECB Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 05-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
  8. Karsten Ruth, 2007. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 541-569, November.
  9. Dieter Nautz & Juliane Scharff, 2005. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability in a Low Inflation Country: Empirical Evidence for Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 507-523, November.
  10. Bernd Hayo & Guillaume Méon, 2012. "Why Countries Matter for Monetary Policy Decision-Making in the ESCB," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 21-26, 04.
  11. Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2006. "Optimal regional biases in ECB interest rate setting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 307-321, June.
  12. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.

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