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Abstract

This paper investigates in a consistent semi-structural empirical framework three current issues of monetary policy in the euro area. First, regarding policy transmission we offer a three-stage procedure to combine the efficient estimation of economic structure prior to EMU with current ECB monetary policy. Second, we test whether the regime change leads Ð before or after Ð EMU to structural instability. Third, we investigate the stance of monetary policy in Europe. We compare a "counterfactual" ECB reaction function based on average interest rates prior to EMU with actual ECB policy. Furthermore, we compare actual ECB policy with interest rate projections using Bundesbank reaction functions and euroland data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 103.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:103

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Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
• F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2003-06-16 (All new papers)
• NEP-EEC-2003-06-16 (European Economics)
• NEP-IFN-2003-07-21 (International Finance)
• NEP-MON-2003-06-16 (Monetary Economics)

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1. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.

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Cited by:

1. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8, pages 375-398, 08.
2. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
   
   • Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "How the ECB and the US Fed Set Interest Rates," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 269/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
3. P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
   
   • Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
   • Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2007. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Paper Series 32-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
4. Assoc. Prof. Anca Tãnasie Ph.D & Lect. Rãzvan Tudor Tãnasie PhD, 2011. "An Algorithm Based Approach For Romania’S Road Towards The Euro-Area Membership Status. In Search Of A Suitable Example," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 133-140, November.
5. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
6. Hayo, Bernd & Hofmann, Boris, 2003. "Monetary policy reaction functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," ZEI Working Papers B 24-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
   
   • Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Macroeconomics 0312007, EconWPA.
7. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "Comparing Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Macroeconomics 0504032, EconWPA.
   
   • Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Comparing monetary policy reaction functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 645-662, September.
   • Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "Comparing Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200502, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
   • Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2004. "Comparing Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 3, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
8. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule? - Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0133, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
   
   • Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule?: Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 917, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
9. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
10. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "The Role of Asset Prices in Euro Area Monetary Policy: Specification and Estimation of Policy Rules and Implications for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2005,6, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
11. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2011. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB’s Decision Rule," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201135, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
12. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
13. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
14. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
15. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos D. Sakkas, 2012. "Inference on Structural Breaks using Information Criteria," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 173, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
16. Maria Eleftheriou & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era - Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
17. Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "How the ECB and US Fed set interest rates," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 72, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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