IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/cigewp/2009_009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do ECB Council Decisions represent always a Real Euro Consensus?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Since January 1999, according to the law, the common monetary policy for all the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) Member States should be decided by simple majority in the Governing Council (GC) of the European Central Bank (ECB), regarding the Euro area aggregate conditions. Notwithstanding, no formal vote has been taken until today and a consensus solution has been the officially announced practical rule, hiding different points of view fuelled by national divergences that might exist within Euro area. Assuming that EMU national central bankers take into account national perspectives from their home countries when they vote interest rate decisions in the GC, we try to find whether there have been favourable conditions for the emergence of voting coalitions among them. In order to accomplish that purpose, for every month since January 1999 until August 2003, we applied cluster analysis techniques to national stances before GC meetings, which we describe using three variables. We found high stability in the identified cluster structure, particularly since August 2001, favouring the emergence of alliances between national interests. In spite of that, it is likely that the strong strategic position enjoyed by the Executive Board of the ECB has been sufficient to a priori defeat any coalitions of opposing proposals on the monetary policy for the Euro-area, situation that will change with EMU enlargement.

Suggested Citation

  • Sousa, Pedro, 2009. "Do ECB Council Decisions represent always a Real Euro Consensus?," Working Papers 9/2009, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:cigewp:2009_009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wwwa.uportu.pt/siaa/Investigacao/WP_9_2009.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yunus Aksoy & Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 2014. "Do Asymmetries Matter for European Monetary Policy?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 13, pages 321-353, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1996. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center.
    4. Volker Clausen & Bernd Hayo, 2006. "Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1123-1134.
    5. Ilian Mihov, 2001. "Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 370-406.
    6. Robert J. MacCulloch & Rafael Di Tella & Andrew J. Oswald, 2001. "Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 335-341, March.
    7. Issing, Otmar, 2001. "The Single Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank: One Size Fits All," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 441-462, Winter.
    8. Mr. Ramana Ramaswamy & Mr. Torsten M Sloek, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union: What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 1997/160, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Otmar Issing, 2001. "The Single Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank: One Size Fits All," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 441-462.
    10. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 5-33.
    11. Scheve, Kenneth, 2004. "Public Inflation Aversion and the Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policymaking," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 1-34, February.
    12. Helge Berger & Jakob Haan, 2002. "Are small countries too powerful within the ECB?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 263-282, September.
    13. Maria ELEFTHERIOU, 2003. "On the Robustness of the "Taylor Rule" in the EMU," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/17, European University Institute.
    14. Ellen E. Meade & Nathan Sheets, 2002. "Regional influences on U.S. monetary policy: some implications for Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 721, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Artis, M.J. & Zhang, W., 2002. "Membership of EMU: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Alternative Criteria," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 54-79.
    16. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    17. van Els, Peter J. A. & Morgan, Julian & Locarno, Alberto & Villetelle, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Working Paper Series 94, European Central Bank.
    18. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli, 1991. "The European Central Bank: Reshaping Monetary Politics in Europe," NBER Working Papers 3860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Inflation culture, central bank independence and price stability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 241-263, May.
    20. Gros Daniel & Hefeker Carsten, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, August.
    21. Francesco Lippi, 1999. "Central Bank Independence, Targets and Credibility," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1615.
    22. Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004. "Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? – National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, September.
    23. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
    24. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
    25. Gabriel MANGANO, 1999. "Monetary Policy in EMU : a Voting-Power Analysis of Coalition Formation in the European Central Bank," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9908, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    26. Paul De Grauwe, 2003. "The Euro at Stake? The Monetary Union in an Enlarged Europe," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 49(1), pages 103-121.
    27. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord93-1, July.
    28. J.M. Arnold, Ivo, 2001. "The Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in Europe," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 399-420.
    29. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    30. Susan M. Collins & Francesco Giavazzi, 1993. "Attitudes toward Inflation and the Viability of Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from the EMS," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 547-586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Comparing monetary policy transmission across European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 58-83, March.
    32. Mojon, Benoît & Agresti, Anna Maria, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 95, European Central Bank.
    33. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
    34. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "Common Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 705, CESifo.
    35. Gert Peersman, 2004. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Are the Effects Different Across Countries?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 285-308, July.
    36. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is It Changing Over Time?," Working Papers 0115, Banco de España.
    37. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, July.
    38. Kashyap, Anil K. & Mojon, Benoît & Terlizzese, Daniele & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    39. Gildea, John A, 1992. "The Regional Representation of Federal Reserve Bank Presidents," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 215-225, May.
    40. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2003. "Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area," Working Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    41. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    42. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB’s decision rule," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 37, pages 135-160, October.
    2. Bernd Hayo & Guillaume Méon, 2012. "Why Countries Matter for Monetary Policy Decision-Making in the ESCB," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(01), pages 21-26, April.
    3. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    4. repec:ces:ifodic:v:10:y:2012:i:1:p:18176872 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bernd Hayo & Guillaume Méon, 2012. "Why Countries Matter for Monetary Policy Decision-Making in the ESCB," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 21-26, 04.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB’s decision rule," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 37, pages 135-160, October.
    2. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    3. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
    4. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
    5. Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg," BCL working papers 9, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
    8. Helge Berger & Till Mueller, 2007. "How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 471-484, September.
    9. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
    10. Gros Daniel & Hefeker Carsten, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, August.
    11. Volker Clausen & Bernd Hayo, 2006. "Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1123-1134.
    12. Andrea Venegoni & Massimiliano Serati, 2017. "The Symmetry of ECB Monetary Policy Impact Under Scrutiny: An Assessment," LIUC Papers in Economics 306, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    13. Jérôme Héricourt, 2004. "And if one size fit all after all? A counterfactual examination of the ECB monetary policy under Duisenberg presidency," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04004a, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), revised Nov 2005.
    14. Volker Clausen & Bernd Hayo, 2002. "Makroökonomische Implikationen der Mitgliedschaft Deutschlands in der Europäischen Währungsunion," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(3), pages 339-353.
    15. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Gert Peersman, 2004. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Are the Effects Different Across Countries?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 285-308, July.
    19. Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2006. "Optimal regional biases in ECB interest rate setting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 307-321, June.
    20. Adam Elbourne & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 1327, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; European Central Bank; Desired Interest Rate; Cluster Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:cigewp:2009_009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luis Pacheco (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciupopt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.