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Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?

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Author Info
Peter van Els (De Nederlandsche Bank)
Alberto Locarno () (Banca dÂ’Italia, Economic Research Department)
Julian Morgan (European Central Bank)
Jean-Pierre Villetelle (Banque de France)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area through the use of large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are based on a carefully designed common simulation experiment involving a 100 basis point rise in the policy interest rate for two years accompanied by common assumptions regarding the path of longterm interest rates and the exchange rate. Aggregating the country level results, the fall in output is found to reach a maximum of 0.4 per cent after 2 years. The maximum aggregate fall in prices is also 0.4 per cent, but it occurs 2 years later. The dominant channel of transmission in the first two years is the exchange rate channel, but in terms of the impact on output, the user cost of capital channel becomes dominant from the third year of the simulation onwards.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 433.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_433_01

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy transmission mechanism; macroeconomic models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  3. Taylor, John B, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal structure, financial structure, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-28. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jordi Gali & J. David Lopez-Salido & Javier Valles, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," NBER Working Papers 8768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Marvin J. Barth III & Valerie A. Ramey, 2000. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," NBER Working Papers 7675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-97. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olivier Basdevant & David Hargreaves, 2003. "Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  2. N. Valckx, 2001. "Stock and Bond Market Sensitivities to Monetary Variables," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 680, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle De Taylor: Estimation Et Interpretation Pour La Zone Euro Et Pour Le Luxembourg," BCL working papers cahier_etude_9, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  4. Balázs Vonnák, 2007. "The Hungarian Monetary Transmission Mechanism: an Assessment," MNB Working Papers 2007/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  5. I. Arnold & P.J.A. van Els & J. de Haan, 2002. "Wealth Effects and Monetary Policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 719, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "Can Monetary Policy Affect The Real Economy?," Economics Working Paper Archive 355, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Inflation Targeting: A Critical Appraisal," Economics Working Paper Archive 388, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Vetlov, Igor, 2004. "The Lithuanian block of the ESCB multi-country model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  9. Robert-Paul Berben & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Javier Valles, 2004. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 400, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Cornel Oros, 2008. "Macroeconomic stabilization in a heterogeneous monetary union: some insights into the effects of fiscal policy coordination," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(34), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Philip Arestis, Malcolm Sawyer, . "Can Monetary Policy Affect the Real Economy? The Dubious Effectiveness of Interest Rate Policy," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive 71, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  14. Matteo Ciccarelli & Elena Angelini & Frédéric Boissay, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 646, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Robert-Paul Berben & Ricardo Mestre & Julian Morgan & Theodoros Mitrakos & Nikolaos G. Zonzilos, 2005. "Inflation persistence in structural macroeconomic models (RG10)," Working Paper Series 521, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Silvia Magri, 2002. "Italian households' debt: determinants of demand and supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 454, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Boris Hofmann, 2006. "EMU and the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from business lending rates," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 209-229, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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