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National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements

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  • Hamza Bennani

    (EQUIPPE - ECONOMIE QUANTITATIVE, INTEGRATION, POLITIQUES PUBLIQUES ET ECONOMETRIE - Université Lille I - Sciences et technologies - Université Lille II - Droit et santé - Université Lille III - Sciences humaines et sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France)

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    Abstract

    This paper aims at discovering the national influences inside the Governing Council of the ECB for setting interest rates. We use a textual analysis of national newspaper articles related to each European central banker to analyze their expressed preferences. We proceed to a cluster analysis with the results obtained and fi nd that there were favorable conditions for the emergence of coalitions of central bankers according to their common economic concerns. Next, a Taylor rule of each coalition is estimated as well as their desired interest rate. Finally, we assess the contribution of each coalition in setting the interest rate fixed by the ECB. Our results show that the identi fied coalitions have an influence inside the Governing Council for setting the interest rate, that is approximately equal to their respective economic weight in the euro area.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00992646.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00992646

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.univ-lille3.fr/hal-00992646
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    Related research

    Keywords: Taylor rule ; European Central Bank ; monetary policy ; cluster analysis ; decision making process ; coalition formation;

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