Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?
AbstractThis paper analyses the effect of measurement error in the output gap on efficient monetary policy rules in a simple estimated model of the US economy. While it is a well-known result that such additive uncertainty does not affect the optimal feedback rule in a linear-quadratic framework, it is shown that output gap uncertainty can have a significant effect on the efficient response coefficients in restricted instrument rules such as the popular Taylor rule. Output gap uncertainty reduces the response to the current estimated output gap relative to current inflation and may partly explain why the parameters in estimated Taylor rules are often much less than what optimal control exercises which assume the state of the economy is known suggest.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Note: received: September 2000/Final version received: February 2001
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Rules: Conceptual Issues and Practical Considerations," NBER Working Papers 6306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996.
"Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1999.
" Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-61, September.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1997. "Inflation Targeting : Some Extensions," Papers 625, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," NBER Working Papers 5962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Seminar Papers 625, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993.
"A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
- Dale W. Henderson & Warwick J. McKibbin, 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," International Finance Discussion Papers 458, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.