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Optimal regional biases in ECB interest rate setting

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  • Arnold, Ivo J.M.

Abstract

This paper uses a simple model of optimal monetary policy to consider whether the influence of national output and inflation rates on ECB interest rate setting should equal a country’s weight in the eurozone economy. The findings depend on assumptions regarding interest rate elasticities, exchange rate elasticities, and openness vis-à-vis non-eurozone countries. The major conclusion is that the ECB should respond less to inflation shocks in EMU countries that have strong trading ties with non-eurozone countries. Intuitively, these countries can take care of some of the monetary tightening themselves, through a real appreciation vis-à-vis their non-eurozone trading partners.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V97-4HD8B29-1/2/50df692719a9cbd8ffffce9c401a55e1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 307-321

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Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:22:y:2006:i:2:p:307-321

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544

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References

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  1. C.J.M. Kool, 2005. "What Drives ECB Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 05-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
  2. Helge Berger & Till Mueller, 2007. "How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 471-484, September.
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  5. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar, 2003. "Restructuring the ECB," CESifo Working Paper Series 1084, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Huefner, Felix P & Friedrich Heinemann, 2003. "Is the View from the Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence and ECB Interest Rate Policy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 110, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  8. Casella, Alessandra, 1990. "Participation in a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Bergvall, Anders, 2002. "The Stabilizing Properties of Floating Exchange Rates: Some International Evidence," Working Paper Series 2002:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  10. Taylor, J.B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by European Central Bank," Papers 649, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  11. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Macroeconomics 0312007, EconWPA.
  13. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
  15. Ellen E. Meade & D. Nathan Sheets, 2002. "Regional Influences on U.S. Monetary Policy: Some Implications for Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0523, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  16. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
  17. Ivo Arnold & Bastiaan Verhoef, 2004. "External causes of Euro zone inflation differentials," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 39(5), pages 254-263, September.
  18. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  19. Helge Berger & Jakob Haan, 2002. "Are small countries too powerful within the ECB?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 263-282, September.
  20. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  22. von Hagen, Jürgen & Brückner, Matthias, 2001. "Monetary policy in unknown territory: The European Central Bank in the early years," ZEI Working Papers B 18-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  23. Ellen E. Meade & D. Nathan Sheets, 2002. "Regional influences on U.S. monetary policy: some implications for Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20091, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  24. I. Arnold & C.J.M. Kool, 2004. "The Role of Inflation Differentials in Regional Adjustment: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 04-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bernd Hayo & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB’s Decision Rule," Working Papers CEB 13-025, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Matthias Neuenkirch & Pierre L. Siklos, 2013. "What's in a Second Opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England," CAMA Working Papers 2013-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Frey, Rainer, 2009. "The design of an asymmetric currency union with shock persistence and spillovers: Short-term versus medium-term," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 85-97, March.
  4. C.J.M. Kool, 2005. "What Drives ECB Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 05-03, Utrecht School of Economics.

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