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Central Bank Communication in the Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Survey of Financial Market Participants

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  • Bernd Hayo

    ()
    (University of Marburg)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    (University of Trier)

Abstract

In this paper, we study whether central bank communication has a positive effect on market participants’ perception of central banks’ (i) credibility, (ii) unorthodox measures, and (iii) independence. We utilise a survey of more than 500 financial market participants from around the world who answered questions in reference to the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Federal Reserve (Fed). We find that market participants believe that the Fed communicates best, followed by the BoE, ECB, and BoJ. Similar rankings are found on the issues of credibility, satisfaction with unconventional monetary policy, and possible deterioration in independence. Using ordered probit models, we show that central bank communication has a positive effect on how central banks are perceived and understood, as it enhances credibility, increases satisfaction with unorthodox measures, and fosters perceived independence of central banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201404.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201404

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Keywords: Central Bank; Communication; Credibility; Financial Crisis; Financial Market Participants; Independence; Survey; Unconventional Monetary Policy;

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References

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  1. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  2. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2004. "Central bank transparency in theory and practice," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 318-329, August.
  5. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P.M., 2004. "How Transparent Are Central Banks?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob De Haan, 2009. "Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 1995-2003.
  7. Grüner, Hans Peter & Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2005. "Unions, wage setting and monetary policy uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0490, European Central Bank.
  8. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in vector autoregressions: A new approach using central bank communication," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4278-4285.
  9. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.
  10. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB's decision rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 135-160.
  11. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2011. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement,Determinants, and Economic Effects," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201140, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Oberlechner, Thomas & Hocking, Sam, 2004. "Information sources, news, and rumors in financial markets: Insights into the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 407-424, June.
  13. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central-bank communication and policy effectiveness," Discussion Papers 0506-07, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  15. Menkhoff, L., 1998. "The noise trading approach -- questionnaire evidence from foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 547-564, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2014. "Self-Monitoring or Reliance on Newswire Services: How Do Financial Market Participants Process Central Bank News?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201423, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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