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Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union

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  • Carsten Hefeker
  • Blandine Zimmer

Abstract

The paper examines the monetary-fiscal interactions in a monetary union model with uncertainty due to imperfect central bank transparency. We first show that monetary uncertainty disciplines fiscal policymakers and thereby reduces taxes, average inflation and output distortions. However, as more members enter the monetary union, the fiscal disciplining effect of uncertainty is mitigated. As a consequence, monetary union enlargement may lead to a more aggressive fiscal stance in some member countries, depending on their relative economic and political weights, on their government’s spending target, and on the change in the degree of uncertainty that they experience with the enlargement.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-09/cesifo1_wp2389.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2389.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2389

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Keywords: monetary union; fiscal policy; transparency of monetary policy; asymmetries;

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References

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  1. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Enrico Marchetti, 2005. "Unions, fiscal policy and central bank transparency," Macroeconomics 0508004, EconWPA.
  2. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gruener Hans Peter & Hayo Bernd & Hefeker Carsten, 2009. "Unions, Wage Setting and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, October.
  4. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  5. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Lans Bovenberg, A., 1998. "Monetary union without fiscal coordination may discipline policymakers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 239-258, August.
  6. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2003. "Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 235-247, August.
  7. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallet, 2003. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 105, Netherlands Central Bank.
  8. Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Hoeberichts, Marco, 2000. "Central Bank accountability and transparency: theory and some evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Beetsma, Roel M.W.J. & Debrun, Xavier, 2007. "The new stability and growth pact: A first assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 453-477, February.
  10. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing credibility: evolving perceptions of the European Central Bank," Staff Reports 231, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Carsten Hefeker, 2008. "Uncertainty And Wage Setting In A Monetary Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(4), pages 391-404, 07.
  12. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "Designing fiscal and monetary institutions in a second-best world," Discussion Paper 1995-47, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  13. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & van der Cruijsen, Carin A B, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, 08.
  15. Winkler, Bernhard, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 0026, European Central Bank.
  16. Ismihan, Mustafa & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2004. "Does central bank independence lower inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 305-309, September.
  17. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
  18. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October.
  19. S[empty]rensen, Jan Rose, 1991. "Political uncertainty and macroeconomic performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 377-381, December.
  20. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2010. "Central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty: Substitutes or complements?," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 140-10, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
  2. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2010. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment," MPRA Paper 23704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2010. "Fiscal policy, institutional quality and central bank transparency," MPRA Paper 23766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Hefeker, Carsten & Zimmer, Blandine, 2011. "The optimal choice of central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 595-606.
  5. Meixing Dai & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2011. "Fiscal disciplining effect of central bank opacity: Stackelberg versus Nash equilibrium," Working Papers of BETA 2011-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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