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An Analysis of the 'Stability Pact'

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  • Beetsma, Roel
  • Uhlig, Harald

Abstract

We analyse the proposed ‘stability pact’ for countries joining a European Monetary Union (EMU). Within EMU shortsighted governments fail to fully internalize the inflationary consequences of their debt policies, which results in excessive debt accumulation. Hence, although in the absence of EMU governments have no incentive to sign a stability pact, within EMU they prefer a stability pact which punishes excessive debt accumulation. With idiosyncratic shocks to governments’ budgets, EMU combined with an appropriately designed stability pact will be strictly preferred to autonomy. While the stability pact corrects the average debt bias, inflation, which is attuned to the Union-average debt level, is more stable.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1669.

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Date of creation: Jul 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1669

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Keywords: Debt Policy; European Monetary Union; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Political Distortions; Stability Pact;

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References

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  1. Bovenberg, A.L. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J., 1997. "Central Bank independence and public debt policy," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74443, Tilburg University.
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  3. Beetsma, Roel & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1995. "Does Monetary Unification Lead to Excessive Debt Accumulation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
  5. Uhlig, Harald, 1997. "Long Term Debt and the Political Support of a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 1603, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jensen, Henrik, 1994. "Loss of monetary discretion in a simple dynamic policy game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 763-779.
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  9. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
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  13. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1995. "Political Economy of Monetary and Budgetary Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 427-39, May.
  14. Rudi Dornbusch, 1996. "Debt and Monetary Policy: The Policy Issues," NBER Working Papers 5573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Huizinga, Harry & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1998. "Is Coordination of Fiscal Deficits Necessary?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Matthias Sutter, 2000. "Flexible Integration, EMU and Relative Voting Power in the EU," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 41-62, July.
  3. Samir Jahjah, 2001. "Financial Stability and Fiscal Crises in a Monetary Union," IMF Working Papers 01/201, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Russell W. Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2000. "Designing Stabilization Policy in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 7607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Marco Catenaro, 2000. "Macroeconomic Policy Interactions in the EMU: A Case for Fiscal Policy Co-ordination," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0003, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  6. Bernhard Winkler, 1999. "Co-ordinating Stability: Some Remarks on the Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policy under EMU," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 287-295, September.
  7. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Good, bad or ugly? On the effects of fiscal rules with creative accounting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 377-394, January.
  8. Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2008. "Sustainable fiscal policies and budgetary risk under alternative monetary policy arrangements," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-28, March.
  9. Xavier Debrun, 2000. "Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: A Short-Run Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 323-358, October.
  10. W. Bolt, 1999. "Fiscal Restraints, ECB Credibility and the Stability Pact:A Game-Theoretic Perspective," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 38, Netherlands Central Bank.
  11. Detken, Carsten, 1999. "Fiscal policy effectiveness and neutrality results in a non-Ricardian world," Working Paper Series 0003, European Central Bank.

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